Friday, December 12, 2008

Projected 2009 Tampa Bay Rays 40-Man Roster And Payroll
With a couple of recent changes to the 40-man roster let's update the 2009 40-man roster projection. We will be back in a little while to look at the 25-man roster and lineup.

40-Man Roster Projection
(notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)...

Notes on the 40-man roster projection
  • Ages are as of today.
  • Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster
  • Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in '09.
  • There are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster. Jason Hammel and Jae Kuk Ryu are out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for them on the 25-man roster. We also don't project Dan Johnson to be back with the Rays.
  • The Rays have 6 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 5 of those players are guestimations at this point based on contracts of similar arbitration-eligibles in the past few years. Anybody you think we are way off on? We are projecting that the other arbitration-eligible player, Jonny Gomes, will be non-tendered by the Rays.
  • We previously had Dan Johnson as arbitration-eligible, but upon further review it appears he came up just short on service time. Also, we are surprised to learn that Willy Aybar is arbitration-eligible, which means he received a full year of major league service time in 2007 despite being suspended most of the season.
  • Chad Bradford's $3.5 million salary sticks out like a sore thumb.
  • The opening day payroll now projects to be $51.9 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli's buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $55.9 million. This amount will certainly go up with free agent signings (DH) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro).



Anonymous Anonymous said...

Draysbay has the total at $44.75mm. Why the discrepancy?

5:20 PM  
Blogger The Professor said...

They are not including the arbitration players. I guessed on what the arbitration players will make in 2009 based on arbitration players from past seasons. those numbers could be much different if any sign long-term extensions.

also, DRB is only looking at the 25-man roster. i have included the full 40-man roster which is the number that is most often reported.

and they have David Price's salary wrong. He will make $750K whether he is in the majors or minors.

finally, they have not included Rocco Baldelli's buyout of $4MM. i have two numbers, one with ($55.9MM) and one without ($51.9MM). When the official payroll is reported, it will not include the buyout. But you can be sure the Rays are considering it part of the payroll.

5:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the clarification. It is hard to pinpoint the right number with all of the arb. guys. Do you really think Bartlett and Navi will get $2mm plus? I really hope we have room for the DH, but I dont see us pushing the $60mm mark, unless we can dump Bradford, Wheeler, and Gross.

5:15 PM  
Blogger The Professor said...

it is a little easier to predict the pitchers because there are so many from year to year. it is easrier to find similar cases in recent years.

Last year Chris Snyder (ARI catcher) was arbitration eligible for the first time and agreed to a 1-year deal for $1.85MM. That was coming off a .252/.343/.433. Navi is coming off a .295/.349/.407. John Buck, another first-year eligible got $2.2MM off a .222/.308/.429 season. So i think $2.3 for Navi is in the ballpark but it might be a little closer to the high-end of the range.

I dont recall who i used in the case of Bartlett because i had to go back two years to find a comparable player. Again, it might be towards the high-end but if it goes to arbitration or he signs a one-year deal, it should be within a half-million.

5:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why is everyone talking about getting rid of Bradford?He was a good reliver,well at least good against right handers.If anything get rid of wheeler.He has blown too many games for us.He had a 5-6 record,thats 11 decisions as a reliver!Bradford had 7 and he was 4-3.And lets say they did sign Ohman,how much do you thing he would ask for per year?

2:27 PM  
Blogger The Professor said...

It is not that people dont like bradford. It is just that he is pretty expensive considering what he does. If the Rays are working on a strict budget, his $3.5 million could be better served to be spent elsewhere.

2:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Am I correct in thinking Troy Percival earned an additional $150,000 toward his 2009 salary by surpassing two performance bonuses based on 2008 appearances and games finished? If I am correct, Percival's 2009 salary will be $4,150,000.

Your site is #1 and I check in every day. Thanks!

9:52 PM  
Blogger The Professor said...

Thanks for reminding me about that. Actually, he had an excalator for both games finished and games played. So it looks like his salary in 2009 will be $4.445 million.

11:57 PM  

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