Last January we performed a meta-analysis of the Rays' top prospects, in which we built a composite ranking of the top 14 players in the system based on eight different rankings and our own "Trade Value Index". Let's take a look back at the list and see how each of those players performed in 2008 and gauge whether or not they are living up to the hype.

1. Evan Longoria (avg. rank: 1.1) It seems like years ago, but Dirtbag was demoted back to triple-A after spring training. But after 10 games, he was back and the Rays never looked back. Despite missing time late in the season with a broken bone in his wrist, Longoria hit .272/.343/.531 with 27 home runs and a 125 OPS+. Add to that 7-7 on stolen base attempts and gold glove-caliber defense and Longoria should be a run-away AL Rookie of the Year...AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

2. David Price (avg. rank: 2.2) Not a bad year for King David who made his professional debut at single-A in late May. Five months later Price recorded the final 4 outs of game 7 of the ALCS to beat the Boston Red Sox and advance the Rays to the World Series. In 29 combined appearances (20 starts) between the minors, the majors and the postseason, Price was 13-1 with a 2.23 ERA. He posted 129 strikeouts in 129.1 innings, to go along with an impressive 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio...WILL BE TOP PROSPECT IN BASEBALL IN '09

3. Jake McGee (avg. rank: 3.3) As impressive as Price was, McGee was equally disappointing. In June, McGee was lost for the season with a torn ligament in his elbow. Even before the injury, it was clear that McGee was not his usual dominating self. Prior to this season, McGee averaged 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. This season, that number was down to 7.5 at double-A. If he can come back successfully from surgery, Joe Maddon recently indicated that he could see McGee as a power lefty in the bullpen...WILL BE OFF THIS LIST IN '09

4. Wade Davis (avg. rank: 3.8) Davis is just 1 of 8 starting pitchers in the organization that could start in the majors in '09. Like McGee, Davis struggled early in the season at double-A. Prior to this season, Davis struck out 9.4 batters per 9 innings and posted a 3.0 strikeout to walk ratio. In 19 double-A starts, Davis posted a respectable 3.85 ERA, but his strikeouts per 9 innings was down to 6.8 and his ratio of strikeouts to walks was down to 1.9. After the double-A all star game, Davis was promoted to triple-A and his numbers rebounded back to his norm. In 9 starts with Durham, Davis struck out 55 in 53 innings (9.3 per 9 innings) and his ratio was back to 2.3. Davis is ready for the majors, but he will have to wait...TOP 20 PROSPECT IN BASEBALL

5. Reid Brignac (avg. rank: 5.3) Two things happened on the way to the majors for Brignac. His glove proved major league caliber, and his bat did not. With the glove, Brignac committed only 12 errors after averaging 28 per season that previous 3 years. He was named the top defensive shortstop of the IL by Baseball America. With the bat, Brignac posted a .250/.299/.412 line. He is still getting an extra-base hit about once every 10 at bats, which is in line with previous seasons, but the 25 walks have to be viewed as a disappointment. He also missed the final two months with a broken bone in his wrist. He did make his major league debut this season, going 0-10 with 5 strikeouts and a walk...PROSPECT STATUS IS SLIPPING

6. Desmond Jennings (avg. rank: 6.9) Another year, another season cut short by injury. This time it was only 24 games before Jennings went down with a shoulder injury. In 2009 Jennings will be 22 years old, have zero experience above single-A and only 685 at bats above high school. The talent is there (.866 OPS in '07 at Columbus), but he needs to show that he can stay healthy for an entire season before we even consider him major league caliber...DISAPPOINTMENT SO FAR

7. Jeff Niemann (avg. rank: 6.9) Niemann made his major league debut for the Rays with one good start and one not-so-good start back in April. In triple-A, Niemann made 24 starts going 9-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a respectable 2.6 strike out to walk ratio. He did seem to get stronger as the season went along. Of course, the good news is that 2008 marked his second consecutive (relatively) healthy season. Niemann will be out of minor league options in 2009 so he will either be in the Rays' bullpen or in the Royals' (or another team's) rotation...COULD BE A SOLID #4/5 STARTER WITH A LONG CAREER

8. Jeremy Hellickson (avg. rank: 8.2) We have always said that we are hesitant to get excited about a prospect until he does something above single-A. After a solid 2008, Hellickson is very much on everybody's radar and he could give the Rays 3 starting pitchers in the top 20 prospects in baseball. Between single-A and double-A, Hellboy made 27 starts, going 11-5 with a 2.96 ERA and a ridiculous 8.1 strikeout to walk ratio. We also saw how much Hellickson is now valued in baseball as many teams at the trade deadline insisted on his inclusion in any deal with the Rays making it very clear that he would not be dealt. He should be #3 on the Rays' list next season...TOP 20 PROSPECT IN BASEBALL

9. Eddie Morlan (avg. rank: 9.4) The best relief pitcher prospect in the system, Morlan posted a solid 3.0 strike out to walk ratio to go with 45 Ks in 47 innings. Morlan was selected to participate in the Futures Game during the All-Star break...COULD MOVE UP A SPOT OR TWO IN 2009

10. Ryan Royster (avg. rank: 11.1) Royster was a big disappointment in 2008. One year after hitting .329-30-98 with a .981 OPS at Columbus, Royster regressed to .265-9-58 with a .691 OPS at Vero Beach. Royster will need to prove that 2007 was not a fluke or he will soon become an afterthought...NOT LIKELY TO BE ON LIST IN 2009

11. Chris Mason (avg. rank: 11.1) As disappointing as Royster was with the bat, Mason was equally disappointing on the mound. After winning 15 games with a 2.57 ERA in 2007 at Montgomery, Mason's ERA skyrocketed to 6.21. He was eventually demoted to the bullpen. Without a dominating fastball, Mason relies on control and that escaped him this season. After averaging 2.6 walks per 9 innings prior to this season, Mason walked 3.4 per 9 inning this season and the pitches in the strikezone were very hittable. Like Royster, Mason needs to prove that 2008 was the exception and not the rule...NOT LIKELY TO BE ON LIST IN 2009

12. John Jaso (avg. rank: 11.4) Jaso's defense has improved considerably, but there is still improvement needed before he is considered a legitimate major league catching prospect. On the other hand, there is little doubt about his bat. For the fifth straight season, Jaso posted an OPS of greater than .800 and boasts a career minor league OBP of .381 (.386 in 2008). 2009 will be a big season for Jaso. If he can show continued progress behind the plate, he could become one of the top catching prospects in baseball...WILL BE IN RAYS TOP 10 IN 2009

13. Fernando Perez (avg. rank: 12.6) He still strikes out way too much (156 in 129 triple-A games) but his athleticism and speed cannot be ignored. He clearly left an impression on Joe Maddon during a September call-up. With a possible opening in right field for 2009, Perez will certainly receive consideration for that position. But we suspect that Perez is being groomed to replace Carl Crawford in left field. If Crawford is traded this off-season, the Rays would save nearly $8 million on the payroll, and only take a small step backwards in talent...COULD BE EVERYDAY MAJOR LEAGUER IN 2009

14. James Houser (avg. rank: 14.1) It is not easy to go 3-3 in 20 starts (double-A) but Houser's 2.86 ERA indicate the lack of wins was not his fault. The 76 to 40 strikeout to walk ratio needs improvement (94.1 innings) but the 69 hits allowed was very impressive. A big lefty (6'5"), Houser still needs to add meat to his bones (185 lbs). Once he does, he could step up as one of the top prospects in the system. In the meantime, Houser's future in the big leagues could be as a relief pitcher...SLOWLY CLIMBING THE BOARD

A Meta-Analysis Of Top Tampa Bay Rays Prospects [Rays Index]

Tampa Bay Devil Dogs (22 days until opening day)

DRG here again to get you through the weekend...

Yesterday: Tampa Bay Rays 4, Yankees 1.except for Shawn Riggans at catcher, this is the lineup we could see on March 31 including the batting order with Cliff Floyd in the 5-hole and Jonny Gomes in right batting 6th, followed by Evan Longoria. Willy Aybar came on late and played first. Joel Guzman replaced Longoria at third late in the game. Carl Crawford stole two bases. Matt Garza had a strong outing overshadowed by the professional debut of David Price in the 7th inning. Price hit the first batter he faced and then settled down to strike out the next three. Garza struck out 4 in 3 scoreless innings. He allowed 1 hit and walked 2. Brian Anderson also made his first appearance of the spring, giving up a leadoff single, but then retired the next three on fly balls. Scott Dohmann pitched a perfect 8th and 9th, striking out 2.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA...

• Many were impressed with David Price's debut including his own pitching coach. Price was clocked between 95-97 on the Rays' guns, striking out three straight after hitting his first professional batter. [The Heater]

"There were a couple of guys in there that had considerable major league experience that didn’t really have much of a chance," Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey said. "Pretty impressive, period, but very impressive for the first time."

• David Price threw 17 pitches, 11 for strikes. He admitted to being star-struck prior to the game and felt he overthrew during the game but got "lucky" enough to keep them in the strike zone. [Bradenton Herald]

"Watching this guy throw 98 miles-an-hour on the black inside, that's cool," Pena said. "That's exactly what we were expecting."

• Rocco Baldelli came out yesterday to clear the air on the rumors surrounding his medical condition. He was emphatic in denying that he has Multiple Sclerosis, a rare blood disorder or that he ever took steroids. He stated that he has taken every test and nothing has been able to pinpoint the problem. [Providence Journal]

“I’ve felt a lot of different sensations...Nothing came back specifically positive.” He won’t detail the specifics of the battery of tests he keeps referring to, the ones that have taken place here in Tampa, and he wouldn’t give specific locations. But he said he’s been examined by doctors around the country..."I feel like I’ve been tested for everything on Earth. The testing I went through last year was pretty extensive …I have had some problems with my muscles recovering. They don’t recover on a day-to-day basis like I would like them to. It’s tough when you wake up one day and they don’t feel as good as they did the day before. It’s not a fun feeling. We’re still looking to get that very specific diagnosis so I can sleep better at night.”

• Joe Maddon reiterated on Saturday that the team needs to know by the end of the week if they can expect to get 9 innings from Rocco Baldelli or start looking for other options...Let's say nobody seems very optimistic about that. [St. Pete Times]

"Over the course of the next week, something's probably got to give in a positive direction to know that he's going to be able to get out there with any kind of regularity," Maddon said. "You're looking to get nine innings, whether it's as a DH or an outfielder. So I'd say the next week is going to be very vital, or important, to determine that."

• Marc Lancaster catches up with Matt Spring who is in his first major league camp. [Tampa Tribune]
  
• Some worry that the Rays proposed stadium could end the city's hopes of becoming a mecca for Arts enthusiasts. [St. Pete Times]
• Minor League Ball is running a community projection for BJ Upton. The final tally was .286/.370/.502 with 25 home runs, 93 RBI and 30 steals. [Minor League Ball]
  
• Similar to the Prof's Meta-Analysis of Top Prospects in the sidebar, MLB Scoop averaged all of the lists of Top Prospects to come up with an aggregate list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. The Rays have four in the top 20, and five overall. [MLB Scoop]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (30.5 days until Opening Day)

Went out to check the mail today and we were surprised with quite a little present.

That my friends is the Tampa Bay Rays' very own BJ Upton along with his brother Justin Upton of the D-Backs. And no, this is not a fake magazine mock-up from one of those booths at the Trop. A major sports magazine actually put a Ray on the cover. We don't recall this ever happening before. Can anybody think of an example?

And how about that uni on BJ? We were tentative supporters of the new uni's since the beginning, but now we are really getting excited. We understand the green was unique and set the Rays apart...but boy, BJ sure looks more like a baseball player now. We likey.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• The first spring game is not quite over. Edwin Jackson looked strong allowing only one hit in two innings. He went 1-2-3 in the first and after giving up a leadoff single in the second, he got the last two outs on strikeouts to get out of the inning. Rays had bases loaded in the first one out, but Willy Aybar struck out in his first at bat for the Rays. Jonny Gomes ended the inning without a run. Evan Longoria drove in a run with an rbi-double in his second at bat in the Rays 3-run 4th inning. Ben Zobrist has two hits including a double. Jason Hammel gave up two runs in two innings and Jake McGee got knocked around pretty good in his first spring appearance allowing four runs on three hits and three walks in one inning. Shawn Riggans was 0-3 on base stealers, while John Jaso gunned down his only chance. Last spring base stealers were 10-11 against Riggans. [MLB]
  
• Rays Anatomy takes an in depth look at the top prospect lists from several major outlets. [Rays Anatomy]
• The Rays continue to try and sell their product the old fashioned way...door-to-door. Dick Crippen a senior advisor for the Rays promoted the Rays recently at a rotary club meeting in New Port Richey. [The Suncoast News]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (34 days until Opening Day)

What could possibly knock the Barry Bonds non-story from above-the-fold. Hmmmm? What could possibly be a bigger story than that? What is THIS?

Rays ace Scott Kazmir will have an MRI exam on his left elbow this afternoon after feeling discomfort while warming up on the mound during today’s intrasquad game.

WHAT THE [several explicatives deleted]!?!?!?!? Excuse us while we go curl up in the corner in fetal position mumbling incoherently...

But wait...It might not be so bad after all.

“We did all the strength tests and everything and he said I had great strength, and I didn’t feel one thing,” said Kazmir. “That’s always a good sign.”

And could this actually be a blessing in disguise...Scott?

“It was just a little scary because I’ve never felt it before,” he said. “But after I talked with Ron and we did some strength tests, I felt confident that we’ll be all right. Just got to check it out just to make sure.”

Little nervous are we? Maybe you want to reconsider that long-term extension after all.

Kazmir headed for MRI [Rays Report]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Oh yeah. At the bottom of the same story, David Price experienced stiffness in his throwing shoulder, but it does not sound serious. [Rays Report]

He’ll be checked out again tomorrow to see if his work schedule needs to be pushed back, but Joe Maddon said there was nothing to worry about. “He’s fine,” said Maddon.

• Stuart Sternberg acknowledged that the Rays may back off of their stadium proposal if the sale of Tropicana Field does not generate as much revenue as the team has projected. Sternberg also stated that he told Andrew Friedman not to consider the fate of the stadium when making trades and signings this off-season even though more wins will certainly help push the proposal through. [Bradenton Herald]

"What I try to do and what I've instilled in the organization . . . is remove as many variables as I can from any equation. I said to them immediately, just take the stadium out of it because If you don't, you're just going to end up driving yourself crazy and what you start to do is to say, 'Were only trying to win for that reason' or, 'Lets try to win a few extra games to get some votes.' We just removed that immediately and we don't have to think about it...There are a lot of factors we can't control. Yes, we can help control the wins a little bit, but quite frankly is there a lot we can do to help us win a ton more games? If you win three or five more games is that going to make the difference at the voting booth? I doubt it. I would hope and I think that people see past that a little bit. I think if you win 53 games and were shedding payroll and were doing some bad things, that's a bad thing. But the economy is certainly an issue. How do people look at it? There's so many variables that I just try to remove as many as possible whenever I make a decision."

• Stuart Sternberg also rekindled his 2007 goal of 50 home wins (The Rays went 37-44 at home in 2007). Seven teams won 50 home games in 2007. Six of those teams went to the playoffs. He also stated that he thinks this team could make the playoffs if they stay healthy and everybody plays to their potential. [Rays Report]

"What I would love to have happen, you don't know October is going to look like, but you'd like to get well into the summer, into August and see that the guys are performing real well and that you're within at least shouting distance and that you're making some noise, making some trouble. If we can stay out of a bad stretch like we did last year, we had a real rough spot in July, I think that's very possible.''

• We already got a look at how Baseball America ranked the Rays top prospects. Now we get to see how those guys stack-up against the rest of the prospects in baseball with BA's "Top 100 Prospects". Four Rays are in the Top 20, including Evan Longoria (2), David Price (10), Jake McGee (15) and Wade Davis (17). Reid Brignac (39), Desmond Jennings (59) and Jeff Niemann (99) also made the list. [Baseball America]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (13 days until pitchers and catchers report)
A college newspaper in Minnesota got a hold of Delmon Young for a quick little Q&A following the Minnesota Twins FanFest. And boy, what a difference 1,600 miles makes.

When asked about his experience with Tampa Bay...

Tampa was fun. They were the first organization I played with and I appreciate everything they did for me to get to the big leagues and let me play for just over a year … I had great teammates down there …, a talented team and everything, they are going to do well but they are in a tough division.

When asked about having to move from right field to left field with the Twins...

I will do whatever the team wants asks me. That’s what spring training is for, I have all the time in the world to get comfortable in left field. There is only a slight difference with the ball going the opposite way. It’s just a position, you know, just get a glove and let your instincts take over.

Twins fans have no idea what they have gotten themselves into. We cannot wait until the first time Ron Gardenhire asks DY to hit a ball to the right side with a runner on second and no outs, to get the runner to third. Or the first time he insists that Young take a pitch until the pitcher throws a strike after he has walked two straight batters (This is essentially why David Ortiz never posted big numbers with the Twins). We think it is just a matter of time before Gardenhire is Gettin' a Delmon.

Q&A with Delmon Young [The Record]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Rob Neyer ranks the 10 best left fielders for the next 5 years. He has Carl Crawford on top of the list. Still, it is not the most flattering evaluation ever. [ESPN]

You have to like Crawford, but it's worth mentioning that he has not showed a normal growth curve. At 22, he was roughly six wins better than a replacement player ... and was roughly six wins better than a replacement player at 23, 24, and 25. I'm not sure what to make of that, except there's no obvious reason to think he's suddenly going to become a great player (though I do believe he'll have a few great seasons).

• The Stat Pack takes a close look at Rob Neyer's list of the top left fielders. [The Stat Pack]
• Drays Bay takes a look at Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein's list of the top 100 prospects and where the Rays prospects fall on those lists. The most surprising is that both have Desmond Jennings in the top 20 (11 and 18 respectively). [DRays Bay]
• Rays Anatomy breaks down Baseball America's Prospect Handbook list of the Top 30 Tampa Bay Rays prospects. [Rays Anatomy]
  
• The Tampa Tribune has more details about that 35-person task force being formed by the St. Pete Chamber of Commerce to review the Rays proposal for a new stadium. [TBO]
• The Rays Hot Stove Radio Show will make its 2008 debut on Monday at 7:00 pm on 620AM. Andrew Friedman and BJ Upton will appear on the show and will be available for autographs. [DevilRays.com]
  
• Anthony DiComo takes a look at 10 rookies that could be dominant in 2008, including Evan Longoria. [MLB.com]

Down in Tampa Bay, Longoria is set to start at third base a year after slugging 26 homers between two levels of the Minor Leagues. And oh, yes, he's only 22 years old.

The last part of that biography seems most impressive. On a team loaded with young talent, Longoria has a chance to be the star. He's not two years removed from flying off the Draft board third overall, yet the Rays believe he's ready for the big leagues -- both on and off the field.

• UmpBump thinks everybody will be pulling for the Rays this year and that they will be a trendy playoff pick. [Ump Bump]
• Mitch Talbot was honored at his high school by having his jersey retired. When interviewed, hr stated that he expects to start the year in Durham, but he expects to be ready for the majors by mid-season. [Cedar City Review]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (19 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just links today on Bob Eucker's birthday, the 10th anniversary of "I did not have sexual relations with that woman", Australia Day, and National Peanut Brittle Day. We will celebrate by cooking some peanut brittle with our grandmother, and then hooking up with an overweight girl at an Outback Steakhouse while sitting in the front row.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Matthew Silverman claims the Rays are losing money. This is despite a report in Forbes that claims the opposite. We always take a team's assertion with a very large grain of salt. Just about every owner in every sport claims they are losing money and yet people that are very smart when it comes to money keep buying them. Many times, making money or losing money is often a matter of perspective. For example, teams that own their own stadium, often list "rent" as an expense since the stadium is usually listed as a separate business. So even though the money is just going out of one pocket and into the other, the team still lists the rent as an expense for the team. This doesn't work in the case of the Rays, but we have to wonder if they are considering the $30+ million in revenue sharing that the team received last year. We do not know what the Rays exact take was in revenue sharing for 2007, but the team was given more that $30 million in 2006. With a 2007 opening day payroll of approximately $28 million, it is fair to say the Rays took in more Revenue Sharing then they spent on payroll. We are not accountants, but it seems to us that it would require some pretty fuzzy math to show how the Devil Rays lost money in 2007. [365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me]
  
• We participated with several other Rays' bloggers in a "round table" discussion at Rays Anatomy in which we tackled the question "Who is the one player that is MOST important to the Rays future success?" [Rays Anatomy]
• The Heater got their hands on Baseball America's complete list of the Rays top 30 prospects. We were treated to the Top 10 about two weeks ago, so this list just adds 20 players of which one or two will ever wear a Tampa Bay Rays uniform. [TampaBay.com]
• Kevin Gengler continues his rundown of his own list of the Rays Top 30 prospects. He is up to #18 and #17, Justin Ruggiano and Josh Butler. If you looked up AAAA-player in the dictionary of baseball you will see a picture of Justin Ruggiano holding his hands out saying “but I am above-average at a lot of things”. And that will keep him from selling cars for a few more years. He could be serviceable as a fourth outfielder on a lot of teams, but he does not have the skill-set to be an everyday major leaguer. Butler on the other hand we feel is flying a bit under the radar. He was the second-round pick the year the Rays selected Evan Longoria. He was solid last season, if not spectacular, in his first full season split between Columbus and Vero Beach. We will get a better idea of what he is this year once he makes his AA debut. [DRays Bay]
• Jim Callis took the top ranked prospect from each organization and ranked those 30 players. Evan Longoria comes in at #4. [Baseball America]
  
• Bill Chastain tries to rankle our feathers by devoting an entire column to the Rays' attempt to keep the young talent in place. Luckily for Chastain, he waited until after the Rays signed James Shields and he includes speculation that the Rays will attempt similar deals with Scott Kazmir and BJ Upton. Nice try Bill. I'm not biting on this one. In fact if somebody was going to write an article on this topic, this is the way it needed to be done. [DevilRays.com]
• Derek Feldkamp tries to rebound from a poor 2007. Interestingly, Feldkamp feels more comfortable in the bullpen even though the team continues to utilize him as a starter. Used primarily as a relief pitcher at the University of Michigan, Feldkamp saved 15 games in his pro debut at Hudson Valley in 2005. Since then, the Rays have used him primarily as a starter. [The Daily-Telegram]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (35 days until pitchers and catchers report)
[Update 1/15/08: We have added the Top 13 prospect list from Rays of Light.]

[Update 1/14/08: We have added Stacy Long's list of Top 30 prospects to the Meta-Analysis. Long's list is clearly needed in this meta-analysis as he has seen most of these players play on a first-hand basis while covering the Montgomery Biscuits.]

[Ed. Note: We have updated the list to include the rankings posted by the highly respected John Sickels at Minor League Ball. His list was just posted this morning. There was little change in the overall rankings]

Yesterday Baseball America unveiled their list of Top 10 Prospects for the Tampa Bay Rays. No big surprises. You can find the full write-up HERE along with their list of the Top Tools in the organization.

BA is the 5th website (that we are aware of) that has released a rankings list for Rays prospects. We decided to do a meta-analysis and compare the results from several websites. In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don't want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

A few notes on the Meta-Analysis..

1. We included rankings from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball, DRays Bay, Rays Digest, Riverwalk Talk, and Rays Anatomy.
   
2. When calculating the averages, we gave Baseball America a weight of 2. This is simply because, analyzing minor leaguers is what they do for a living. They are the experts and in many cases they have actually seen these prospects play and have been following them for several years. Not to mention their offices are in Durham.
3. If a player was excluded from a list, we gave that player a ranking of 2 spots lower than the lowest ranked player in the list for the purpose of calculating the final average.
4. The final list includes the 14 players that appeared in the Top 10 of at least one list.
   
5. We included our own Trade Value Index, which can be found in the side-panel. Our list differs from the others in that we incorporate more to our rankings than just how good of a major leaguer the player will be. Our rankings are based on "value" to the organization. For example, it is our thought that Wade Davis has the better chance of being a top major league starting pitcher, but we give Jake McGee a higher "value" because he is left-handed and a power lefty with a plus-breaking ball is a very rare commodity.
   
6. Notes on the individual rankings follow the Meta-Analysis.
   

• The top 5 are clear-cut with only subtle disagreements on the exact order. The only outliers are Desmond Jennings whom BP slots at #4 and our own TVI list which includes Jeff Niemann at #5 a spot ahead of Reid Brignac. The thinking is that Niemann is a pitcher, he is closer to the big leagues and while Brignac is still an elite prospect, he did raise at least a few doubts in 2007. If Niemann fails to make the opening day roster, he will begin to fall down the TVI...very fast.
• When it comes to strict major league projections, #8-15 are interchangeable in our eyes and while the names are fairly consistent across the lists, the actual order varies greatly.
• In our eyes, the top 7 are can't-miss prospects. Not necessarily all-stars, but all seven should be contributing major leaguers. We would also add Eduardo Morlan to that list.
  
• We are not sold on Desmond Jennings. But, with the trade of Delmon Young and the injury struggles of Rocco Baldelli, Jennings and Fernando Perez will ultimately compete to be the third outfielder in 2009 or 2010.
  
• We are also not yet ready to anoint Jeremy Hellickson as a legit major league prospect. For a right-hander he is not very big and he is not over-powering, which translates very well at Low-A Columbus. He will get his first big test in 2008 at the hitter-friendly Vero Beach. Until he shows us he can compete at the AA-level, we will remain skeptical. We rank Chris Mason higher. Mason was a college pitcher, so he is more polished and while he is also a not very big, not very overpowering right hander, he has proven it at the AA-level. Still we are skeptical that he will be a very good major leaguer.
  
• BP and our own TVI give Eduardo Morlan his highest ranking of #7. Just look at the free agent market for relief pitchers this off-season and you will see that teams are starting to dish out big bucks for all relief pitchers, not just closers. For all the pitching depth spoken of in the Rays system, very little of it is relief pitchers. While starting pitchers that miss the cut will get a shot at the 'pen, it is never guaranteed to be a successful transition. That gives Morlan a decided edge over others for an organization that is desperate for young talented relief pitchers.

RAYS PROSPECTS WEBTOPIA...

• Rays Digest breaks down the Tampa Bay Rays farm system. [Rays Digest]
  
• Future Considerations breaks down BA's prospect list. FC is in the midst of revealing their Top 30 prospects but have yet to unveil their Top 10 so we could not include their rankings in our meta-analysis. We should note that earlier this week FC took their own stab at predicting the "Best Tools" categories and we questioned whether Evan Longoria would be named both "Best Power Hitter" and "Best Hitter for Average". We thought it might be John Jaso. FC nailed it, as Longoria was named in both categories. *Tip o' the cap* [Future Considerations]

Top 10 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays [Baseball America]
Baseball America Names Rays Top 10, I Was Nearly Right... [Rays Anatomy]
Rays Prospect Preview [Rays Digest]
Rays Top 11 Prospects [Baseball Prospectus]
Baseball America's Top Ten Rays Prospects [DRays Bay]
Top Rays Prospects [Stacy Long's Riverwalk Talk]

• A lot has been made about the Rays farm system and most agree that it is the best in baseball right now. Well, apparently the Rays rank first in overrated prospects also. D. A. Humber: Baseball Central decided to rank the most overrated prospects in baseball. At the top of the list as the most overrated of the overrated? Our very own B.J. "Don't call me Melvin" Upton. They point to how high he was drafted and his struggles in the field and his lack of production at the plate. They do concede that he is young enough and athletic enough to still develop into a solid major leaguer, but they are skeptical. In addition to Upton, Joel Guzman comes in at #4. There biggest point (and a valid one) is that despite his size (6'6", 252 lbs.) he does not hit for a lot of power. We have never seen Guzman play, but we have been around baseball long enough to know that when a kid that big can't hit for power it is usually because they have zero bat speed.
• D. A. Humber then countered with another post defending B.J. Upton and why he is not overrated. The main argument is that he is young and he was the second pick in a weak draft.
• Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus wonders if B. J. Upton could be a Gary Sheffield in the making. Nate, stop teasing us. They test for steroids now. At this point we are still hoping for Jose Reyes but will settle for Mike Cameron.
• Josh Hamilton's progress so far has been labeled "OK" by Reds manager Jerry Narron. Still, the Cincinnati Enquirer speculates that he will make the 25-man roster for the Reds, but worry his development may be stumped much the same way former Red Wily Mo Pena was. The Reds may also try to work out a trade with the Rays so they can send Hamilton to the minors.
• When the season starts, the Rays have a good shot at being the youngest team in the majors, but the two oldest players, Dan Miceli (36) and Greg Norton (34) let it be known that the youngins need grow up or things aren't going to be any better in 2007.
  
• This has been out there for a while, but we had forgotten about it. If Delmon Young has any success this season, we need to prepare ourselves for more "bat tossing" jokes or as The Dugout likes to call it...Gettin' A Delmon.
• DRays Bay has landed a couple of solid interviews in the past month and want you to know it by patting themselves on the back Ricky Henderson-style, over and over. Pretty soon they will start referring to themselves in the third person.
  
• Yet another write up on the Rays top 10 prospects.
• Do you remember the Turn Ahead The Clock promotion that Major League Baseball ran back in 1999. We remember, but strangely had forgotten that the Rays had participated, which is probably for the better. Well, for only $14.99 you can relive that night by owning your very own Rays Turn Ahead The Clock jersey!
  
• What would it take to make someone blog about the Rays all year?