Wednesday, June 04, 2008

[HINDSIGHT IS WHAT IT IS]
The 2007 Draft: A Look Back
With the 2008 MLB draft tomorrow, the Tampa Bay Rays front office is busy preparing for their third rodeo. Now is a good time to take a look back and gauge the early returns from players selected in last year's draft. We all know about David Price, but what about the rest of the picks.

While analyzing each pick we took a look at the next 10 players picked and how they are performing to see if there are any gems the Rays missed. Once you get past that mark, we start looking at players that many teams missed out on, not just the Rays. One of our biggest draft analysis pet-peeves it to give too much credit to teams that get a superstar in a later round. For example, the New England Patriots are always credited for drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round. That pick should not be used to show their drafting prowess. They got lucky. If they knew how good Brady would turn out to be, they would not have risked waiting until the 6th round to select him.

Without further ado, we present you the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2007 top 10 draft picks recap...
  1. David Price, LHP: It took him almost a year to make his professional debut, but so far he is everything the Rays hoped for. In 3 starts he has yet to allow a run and has been touched for only 8 hits and 2 walks in 18 innings. He has struck out 19. Some are beginning to wonder if Price could make a late-season appearance for the Rays. This will only happen if the Rays are in the pennant race and one of Troy Percival, Al Reyes or Dan Wheeler is lost for the rest of the year and there is an obvious need for a 7th or 8th inning pitcher. With his late start to the season, there will still be plenty of bullets left in his arm and the Rays will not have to worry about over-extending him...Player missed: It is hard to argue with Price, but some suggested before the draft that the Rays should take catcher Matt Wieters (4 picks later). Early on, it looks like they would have been justified in that selection also. Weiters is with the O's high-A affiliate and is hitting .324/.420/.566 with 12 home runs. Would Buster Posey even be on the radar this season if the Rays had selected Wieters?
  2. Will Kline, RHP: After making 9 starts in '07 and going 0-4 with a 4.97 ERA, Kline was shutdown this spring and will miss the entire '08 season due to an arm injury...Player missed: The Rays deserve a pass on this one as there doesn't appear to be a single legit prospect in the next 10 players selected after Kline. The closest is Brian Rike (6 picks later), a lefty-swinging outfielder in the Rockies organization. In low-A Rike is hitting .274/.392/.487 with 11 home runs and 10 steals.
  3. Nick Barnese, RHP: Made 8 starts for Princeton last season going 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 37 Ks with only 4 walks in 36.1 innings. He has yet to make his debut in '08. At 19, he will likely be on the opening day roster for Hudson Valley...Player missed: Jonathan Lucroy (6 picks later). We are glad that the Rays passed on Wieters, but Lucroy, another college catcher, might be a mistake. He dominated the rookie league in '07 with a .342/.383/.487 line and he is off to a good start this season, hitting .318/.389/.518 in the SAL with above-average defensive skills.
  4. David Newmann, LHP: Newmann did make an appearance in '07 and was shut down in the spring this year with an arm injury that will sideline him all season. Two of the top 4 picks shut down for an entire year already? That's not good...Player missed: Eric Farris (6 picks later). Farris, a second baseman, had a strong rookie campaign, hitting .326/.369/.423 with 21 steals in 63 games, but he has struggled so far in his sophomore season, with a .198/.241/.259 line. Still, like catchers, the Rays have a dearth of second basemen in the system and this one could have been had in the 4th round. Instead the Rays got Bubkis.
  5. CLICK HERE FOR CONTINUE READING...
  6. Dustin Biell, OF: Hit .218/.279/.279 and 7 of 12 steals in 49 games for Princeton last year and will likely make his '08 debut with Hudson Valley...Player missed: Jacob Arrieta (4 picks later). Arrieta is a college right-handed pitcher that is already in high-A in the O's organization. This season he is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings.
  7. Emeel Salem, OF: Salem was leading all of professional baseball with 25 steals when he broke his elbow on a slide in May and will now be out for the rest of the season. He was hitting .301/.357/.366 and looks like a legit prospect...Player missed: None
  8. Reid Fronk, OF: Fronk had a solid debut in '07 hitting .311/.396/.566 for Hudson Valley. He has struggled a bit early on this season for Columbus in the SAL, hitting .241/.333/.429. He does have 24 extra-base hits and 6 steals...Player missed: Bryan Augenstein (9 picks later). The big (6'5", 225) right-hander out of the University of Florida is overpowering the Midwest League with a 3-1 record and a 2.09 ERA in 11 starts. He has 61 strikeouts and only 9 walks.
  9. Matt Moore, LHP: Moore, only 17 when he was drafted, made 8 appearances and 3 starts for Princeton, striking out 29 and walking 16 in 20.1 innings. He posted a 2.66 ERA. He is expected to pitch for Hudson Valley in '08...Player missed: Adrian Alaniz (5 picks later). So far Moore looks legit and he is a lefty, so no fault with this pick but if we were to suggest another player it would be Alaniz. The right-handed college pitcher is already in high-A and pitching well with 49 strikeouts in 53 innings and a 2.72 ERA. He is 7-0 in 10 starts.
  10. Cody Cipriano, 2B: Cipriano is struggling in single-A Columbus hitting .194/.296/.361. He is 7-7 in steals and does have 13 walks, but strikes out too much with 26 in 29 games...Player missed: Aaron Brown (10 picks later). Brown is a tall (6'6") righty college relief pitcher that is overpowering the Northwest League. In 37 innings this season he has a 1.95 ERA and 49 strikeouts and only 15 walks.
  11. Greg Sexton, 3B: Sexton is having a solid if unspectacular season for Columbus hitting .307/.348/.443. He has actually greatly improved his numbers over his pro debut last season in Hudson Valley which is a good sign of adjusting to the wood bats...Player missed: Joe Patterson (9 picks later). Patterson, a lefty relief pitcher, drafted out of college has already advanced to high-A in the Giants organization. He started the year in single-A and struck out 37 in 31.1 innings with a 2.30 ERA and only 13 walks.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

3 comments

Friday, April 04, 2008

DOWN ON THE FARM
Opening Day 2: Minor Leaguers On Patrol
Toledo 3, Durham 2. Jeff Niemann had a strong 2008 debut, throwing 71 pitches (40 strikes) in 5 innings. He allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 5...Evan Longoria went 0-3. He struck out to end the first, grounded out, flied out and was hit-by-pitch...Reid Brignac was 1-4 with a strikeout...Justin Ruggiano was 0-4 with 3 Ks.

Chattanooga 4, Montgomery 1. Jake McGee overcame a rough spring training with the big boys and picked up right where he left off in 2007. In 6 innings, he struck out 7 and walked none with only 3 hits and 1 run. he retired 10 of the first 11 batters faced with 6 Ks. A pair of singles and a stolen base led to the only run McGee would allow...Eduardo Morlan, the other pitcher in the Delmon young-Matt Garza trade, made his debut in the Rays organization. He came on in the 8th with 1 out. After giving up a double to the first batter he face, he retired 5 of the last 6 batters he face, with 3 strike outs...The Biscuits managed only 6 singles with no player with more than one hit.

Vero Beach 8, St. Lucie 3. Heath Rollins, who set the Rays organizational record last year with 17 wins, posted a no-decision in his 2008 debut. He gave up 2 runs in 5 innings on 6 hits. He struck out 6 and walked none...John Matulia and Cesar Suarez each had 3 hits and Matt Fields hit his first home run of the season...Ryan Royster was 2-5 with 2 RBI.

Savannah 2, Columbus 0. Alex Cobb, the Rays 4th round pick in '06, was strong in his '08 debut, but it wasn't enough as the Catfish were shutout on 1-hit. Cobb struck out 5 and walked none, in 5.2 innings. He gave up 2 runs (1 earned)...Greg Sexton broke up the no-hitter in the 7th with a single.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM
...
  • Will Kline and David Newmann will both miss all of 2008 after injuries to the 2007 draft picks. Kline was the Rays 2nd round selection while Newmann was tabbed in the 4th. [Riverwalk Talk]
  • Evan Longoria is looking forward to getting off to a good start in Durham. [Herald-Sun]
"I was kind of the big issue at camp, but I tried to stay away from the media stuff as much as I could," Longoria said. "I'm glad to be back here. I like the people, and I like this place. Now I just have to go out and do my job every day...I'm no different from anyone else. Everybody in this league could play in the big leagues. It's just a matter of how hard you work and how well you can refine your skills."
  • Jake McGee still has a lot of work to do before he is ready for the major leagues, but manager Billy Gardner saw the first steps last night. [Montgomery Advertiser]
"He did a good job for six innings," Gardner said. "At times, he was overpowering. I thought he did a good job after the first time through the lineup mixing it better. We wanted to try and stress upon him to throw his breaking ball and his changeup. I thought his breaking ball was good. He threw it for strikes. He did his job and that's all he can do. We would have liked to have provided him with more runs. But he's going to make a lot of quality starts for us."
  • Wade Davis and Jake McGee have been inseparable since starting their pro careers and 2008 is more of the same as both will be members of the Montgomery rotation and roommates...at least until the first one is promoted to Durham. [Montgomery Advertiser]
  • Durham Bulls Athletic Park was named the fourth best minor league stadium. [Durham Bulls]
  • Minor League baseball is thriving in Montgomery after it was considered dead less than a decade ago. [Montgomery Advertiser]

Labels: , , , , , ,

2 comments

Saturday, February 02, 2008

[THE SATURDAY MORNING REVOLUTION]
In A Revolution, One Triumphs Or One Dies
Tampa Bay Devil Dogs (12 days until pitchers and catchers report)

Please allow myself to introduce...myself. The name is DEVIL RAY GUEVARA. You can call me DRG for short. I will be manning the ship on most weekends from now on and if I behave myself, the Prof says I might be able to post during the week every now and then. So I guess I will be seeing you on the weekends.

I have been involved with RI behind the scenes for a while now. I like to think of myself as the Prof's consigliare. The problem is, The Prof has all these rules that I am supposed to follow. The first post of the day must include a "webtopia", minimize the vulgarity, player names in bold type, don't pick apart every single post written by Marc Topkin and try not to include pictures of Joe Maddon in a thong. Blah, Blah, Blah. Horseshit. I am so sick of Maddon and his Pollyanna-speak, that the next time he praises a relief pitcher after he blows a 4-run lead in the 7th inning, that picture of him in a thong is going up.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • The Devil Dogs continue their quest to bring back every mediocre catcher in the franchise history. The latest to sign is Josh Paul whom the Rays inked to a minor league deal. Paul played 35 games for the Rays in 2007 posting an OPS+ of 29. Wait...*speaking to copy editor*...29? Is that correct? Isn't 100 an average OPS+? I did not even know it was possible to have an OPS+ that low...Paul joins Mike DiFelice in the battle for the back up catchers position. No word yet on how negotiations are proceeding with John Flaherty...Is it just me, or is anybody else worried about what happens if Dioner Navarro is injured or slumps like he did in the first half of 2007? [TBO.com]
  • The Rays also continued their fascination with pitchers that have not pitched since Tommy John surgery by signing left handed pitcher Brian Anderson. Anderson has not pitched since 2005. A starting pitcher most of his career, Anderson is expected to compete for a spot in the Rays bullpen. As scary as it sounds, if Anderson still has a left arm, he may have the best chance right now of being the Rays left-handed specialist out of the 'pen. [TampaBay.com]
  • Kevin Gengler rolls on with his profiles of the Rays top prospects. He is up to #16 Nick Barnese and #15 Will Kline. [DRays Bay]
  • One believes that Akinori Iwamura is the key to the Rays 2008 infield. [365 Days of Dough, Rays and Me]
  • The Mets and Johan Santana finally reached an agreement on a contract extension and our own Cork Gaines appears to have been the first to report it on the internet. [MLB Trade Rumors]

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

7 comments

Monday, September 10, 2007

Down On The Farm: Montgomery Makes It Three Affiliates In Championship Series
Montgomery 12, Mississippi 5 (Montgomery wins series 3-1). John Jaso got the Biscuits off to a good start with a 3-run home run in the first inning, and Montgomery broke things open with a 7-run sixth inning, to advance to the Southern League championship series for the second straight season. Mike Prochaska was hittable, allowing 9 hits and 2 walks in 5.2 innings, but only allowed 3 runs. Erold Andrus had a 3-run home run in the 6th inning and went 3-5. Reid Brignac was 3-3 with 2 walks and he drove in 3.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM
...
  • The Durham Bulls will use he same rotation for the finals that they used in the the first round of the playoffs. JP Howell will go in game 1 on Tuesday, followed by Jeff Niemann and Jae Seo. [Our Sports Central]
  • Heath Rollins will start in game 1 tonight for the Columbus Catfish. Will Kline will go in game 2, followed by Jeremy Hellickson. [Ledger-Enquirer]

Labels: , , , , ,

0 comments

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Down On The Farm: Will Kline Makes Debut
Durham 4, Louisville 2. JP Howell made his second spot-start for the Bulls, striking out 10 in 7 innings. He gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks. Chad Orvella pitched the 8th and 9th for his 13th save. Jason Pridie was 3-5 with 2 RBI. He is hitting .311 since his promotion from Montgomery.

Vero Beach 7, Ft. Myers 4. Al Reyes started for the Biscuits in a rehab appearance pitching the first inning. He gave up 2 hits including a solo home run. Mike Wlodarczyk came on and pitched the next 5 innings allowing 2 runs. Sergio Pedroza was 2-3 with his 11th and 12th home runs. He drove in 4 and now has 5 home runs in the past 9 games.

Columbus 3, Rome 2
. The Devil Rays second-round pick, Will Kline made his professional debut, throwing 2 innings. He struck out 1 and gave up 1 hit. Seth Dhaenens rallied the Catfish from down 2-0 with a 2-run single with 2 outs in the 9th. Jorge Acosta scored the winning run in the bottom of the 10th on a wild pitch.

Hudson Valley 13, Williamsport 1
.

Princeton 4, Greenville 0
.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM...
  • Will Kline will be on a very strict pitch count with the Catfish. Kline has already thrown 125 innings this season while on the Ole Miss squad that made the NCAA tournament. [Columbus Ledger-Enquirer]

Labels:

1 comments

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

The Hangover: Ken Rosenthal Is A Smart Guy (Sometimes)

White Sox 6, Devil Rays 1.
just a quick "Hangover" today...we promise to drink more tonight...


DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA
...
  • Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports says it would be a mistake to trade Carl Crawford (we agree):

    "I wouldn't even consider trading him," the GM (of a rival team) says. "Some might say, 'Look at all you could get.' But it doesn't matter what you could get. You know what you have with that guy...Crawford to me, is like what Kirby Puckett was in Minnesota. When your best player plays harder than anyone on the team, you've got something special...Every kid coming up is not going to be as good, but he had better play as hard. That's pretty unique. When you've got it, you don't let it go. As soon as you move a guy like Crawford, you spend the rest of your career looking for one."

  • John Heyman of SI.com thinks that Al Reyes would be a good fit for the Brewers
    Milwaukee would like some bullpen fortification, and this ex-Brewer certainly would do the trick. He's come out of nowhere to go 12 for 12 in saves with a 1.31 ERA. A far cry from his mop-up days in Milwaukee, when the Brewers were an AL also ran, not an NL Central contender.
  • The Devil Rays #2 pick in this year's draft, William Kline has signed and threw a bullpen session before Turesday's game. Kline will begin his professional career with low-A Columbus.
  • We aren't sure what Marc Topkin means by "(Josh Wilson) may have played his way into their long-term plans," but we would be surprised if Wilson is a member of the 2008 Devil Rays.

Labels: , , , ,

0 comments

Friday, June 08, 2007

David Price Was The Choice All Along
I'm sure many of you noticed that in the day or two before the draft we started getting more and more enamored with Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters. Let's just call that pre-wedding jitters. When it comes down to it, the Rays made the right decision and it sounds as if the decision was an easy one for RJ Harrison and the rest of the front office.

So why were they so secretive while sitting at the top of the draft board? That's easy. Until a couple of days before the draft, Vanderbilt and David Price were still playing in the NCAA tournament. The last thing Major League Baseball and the Devil Rays needed was to publicly announce that Price was their guy and then have him throw out his arm in a tournament game. The Rays would have egg on their face and it would be a very unfair situation for Price.

In the end, the decision was an easy one. A big power lefty is the rarest of commodities in baseball. And when a team has an opportunity to acquire one, they grab him and run...real fast.

David Price is considered the closest player to the majors in this year's draft. So where will the Rays assign Price once he signs? First of all, we need to keep in mind that Price has already thrown 133 innings in 2007. The Rays are not going to want to add too many more to his young arm this season. It would not surprise us if he is assigned to AA Montgomery, but high-A Vero Beach is more likely to be his first stop. Depending on when Price is signed, look for only a half dozen starts from him this year (30-35 innings) and a AA Montgomery start next season, with hopes of a mid-season move to AAA Durham. If all goes well he could get 5-6 starts for the Rays in September of next season.

DEVIL RAYS DRAFTOPIA...
  • In a change from previous drafts, the Rays have until August 15, to sign their first three picks. If they fail to sign the pick before that deadline, they lose the rights to that player and will be awarded a nearly identical pick in next years draft. For example, if the Rays fail to sign David Price, they will be awarded the #2 pick in 2008.
  • Here is a scouts video clip of David Price pitching. This is the first time we have ever seen Price throw. We are obviously not a scout, but we played past high school and we even coached for a few years. First of all, WOW. We have seen a lot of high school games and a lot of college games, and this is the most impressive pitcher we have ever seen at either level. We now see why the scouts drool over him. First thing we noticed is he has an "ease" to his delivery. There is no wasted movement. Notice how, despite being a power pitcher, that he lands like Greg Maddox. That is, very easy on the follow-through (fast forward through the warm-up pitches to the game action. He is not "letting it go" in the warm-up pitches). When a pitcher has such a simple and easy delivery, there is not a lot of strain on the arm. This is why many have stated that he is less likely to have arm troubles than other pitchers. At the end, you get a view from the first base side. Notice how, despite the easy delivery, he generates a lot of arm speed. Never seen anything like it at the college level. And for those that are not familiar with this type of radar gun, it measures the speed at the point of release and also the speed as it crosses the plate. An average fastball will lose 7-10 MPH from the hand to the plate. You would worry if a pitcher was consistently in the 10-11 MPH drop-off range. Price's fastball looks to be just right, losing around 8 MPH on average. Hold on...we need to clean this drool up.
  • In the second round the Rays selected Will Kline, a right-handed pitcher from Ole Miss. Ole Miss is still alive in the NCAA tournament. Kline had Tommy John surgery in high school. A junior, this is the first season in which he was used as full-time starting pitcher since having the surgery.
  • In the first 5 rounds, the Rays selected four pitchers. Even MLB.com does not have scouting reports on any of the Rays selections past the second round. So, if anybody thinks they know how well the Rays did in this draft are smoking.

Labels: ,

0 comments