THE GOOD: Andy Sonnanstine. All The Duke does is win, improving to 13-6 on the season. Show of hands: Who thought Sonny would be leading the Rays in wins in the middle of August? Put your damn hands down. Of course, Duke did his best Scott Kazmir impersonation last night, lasting only one out into the 6th inning and needing 104 pitches to get there...Joe Maddon's use of Trever Miller. Miller was signed to be 1 or 2 batter per game lefty specialist. In his first 52 appearances this season, Miller faced more than 2 batters 26 times. That is not necessarily Papa Joe's fault. Injuries have forced him to alter his ideal bullpen. But in the last two games, Miller has faced 3 batters, including his 1 out performance last night, coming on getting the all-important leadoff hitter in the 8th inning...With Jason Hammel doing his best job trying to give us a heart attack, Jason Bartlett started a georgeous double-play, going up the middle behind the bag and back-handing the ball to Aki Iwamura who stepped back out of the path of the runner and fired a one-hopper to Carlos Pena who made a slick scoop to end the inning and the threat, preserving a 5-4 lead...Sac Bunts and ignoring signs. The Rays are last in baseball in sac bunts, yet, with a 5-4 lead in the 8th and Justin Ruggiano on first and no outs, Dioner Navarro bunted Ruggy to second. Gabe Gross followed with a single in which Ruggiano ran through Tom Foley's stop sign to score the Rays' 6th run and give the Rays a little breathing room.

THE BAD: There was a big difference between BJ Upton's baserunning gaffe last night and the incidents that led to his benching this past weekend. Upton who hit what should have been an easy double, got caught jogging into an uncovered second base, when Mark Teixeira came from behind to field a throw and tag Upton out. According to Joe Maddon (and we agree), this was "not a lack of effort." Rather it was "a mental mistake." That doesn't make it OK, but does explain why Upton will not be disciplined...Our stress level. Jason Hammel relieved Trever Miller with 1 out and nobody on in the 8th inning with the Rays nursing a 5-4 lead. Hammel walked the first batter and then settled down to retire the next 2 to get out of the inning. But, just seeing Hammel in that situation gives us agida. And he needed the double-play to survive. It has been a while since we needed to take Papa Joe Behind the woodshed, but if Hammel blows that lead...

THE TELLING: With 4 teams still in contention for 3 playoff spots, the Rays now have a 6-game cushion over the 4th team, the Twins. The Rays magic number for the playoffs is 33. The Rays are also now only 1 game back in the loss column behind the Angels for the best record in baseball.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• As of last night, the Rays are planning on playing tonight's game, but are obviously monitoring the situation with Tropical Storm Fay very closely. [The Heater]
• Cliff Floyd said that BJ Upton's baserunning brainfart made "his heart hurt," and added that Joe Maddon doesn't need to address the situation because the players will take care of it. [MLB]

"You've got a guy who, in my opinion, is going to be different," Floyd said. "I'm going to put my butt on the line by saying that. I'm going to do everything possible, and I think everybody in here is going to do everything possible to make sure it don't happen again. It's not in Joe's hands anymore. It's not in anybody else's hands but ours as players."

• Troy Percival will not need arthroscopic surgery on his knee. Even without the surgery, he is still scheduled to be out 2-4 weeks. [Rays Report]
• Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald calls the Red Sox a "mystery", saying that "suddenly, [the postseason] doesn't seem so certain," and that we "don't know a thing about these Red Sox yet." [Boston Herald]
• Brittany Ghiroli reports that Evan Longoria is progressing well and is still on schedule to return to the Rays on or around Sept. 1. [MLB]
  
• Al Reyes has cleared waivers and declined a minor league assignment. He is now a free agent. [The Heater]
• Rocco Baldelli who played the field in 2 of his first 3 games, said it was not easy on his body. [MLB]

"It was something I hadn't done yet. It was difficult, not going to say it was easy, but I came out of it feeling good."

• The Rays make a return appearance at The Dugout with Barry Bonds trying to convince Joe Maddon to give him a job, any job. [Fanhouse]
  
• Her Rays thinks Grant Balfour may need to visit the same psychologist that helped Matt Garza. [Her Rays]
  
• The odds of the Rays winning the World Series has dropped from 65:1 in the spring to 3:1 now. [Gambling911]
  

THE GOOD: The "Good" starts and ends with Matt Garza who pitched a 2-hitter for his second shutout of the season. One night after Joe Maddon was forced to use all 7 of his relief pitchers in an extra-inning contest, it was imperative Garza work deep into the night and he did not disappoint. Garza did not allow a hit until 2 outs in the 6th, when a blooper fell between Justin Ruggiano and Aki Iwamura...We should also point out that every starter had at least 1 hit, and the Rays "weak" offense produced 4 home runs, including number 24 for the red-hot Carlos Pena, who has now homered in 3-straight games and for the 9th time in his last 20 games.

THE BAD: BJ Upton. How angry was Joe Maddon that Upton failed to run hard twice last night? Papa Joe employed the harshest punishment a manager can do to a player. He embarassed him in the middle of the game. Having already decided to remove Upton from the game in the middle of the 6th inning, Maddon let Upton take the field in the bottom-half of the inning. Before Matt Garza was able to throw a pitch, Papa Joe sent Justin Ruggiano out to the field to replace Upton, foricing Upton to make the baseball-equivalent of the "Walk of Shame" back to the dugout.

THE TELLING: Jason Bartlett was back at SS last night for the first time in 12 days...Matt Garza and James Shields each have 2 shutouts which is tied for the major league lead. The Rays' 4 complete game shutouts is tied with the Dodgers, Milwaukee and Cleveland for the most in baseball. The pitching staff now has 7 complete games and this was the 11th time the team has shutout an opponent. That is second only to the 12 shutouts by the Red Sox and the Indians...The Rays magic number for the playoffs is now 36 over the White Sox/Twins. And the Yankees lost. Again. They should be ashamed of themselves. It is not even September and they are very close to being an afterthought even for the Wild Card.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Thank you Marc Lancaster...Finally a local media member stood up and emphatically said Barry Bonds is not going to play for the Rays. Of course it took a telling report from Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports in which Bonds agent says he sent Andrew Friedman a text message asking if the Rays would be interested in Bonds and the message went unanswered. [Rays Report]
  
• BJ Upton will also be benched on Saturday. Joe Maddon would not talk to Upton on Friday after the game for fear of saying something he would regret...That is a side of Papa Joe we haven't seen before. [The Heater]
  
• Troy Percival went on the DL with an injury to the cartilage in his knee. Juan Salas was recalled from Durham. Percival will miss 2-4 weeks. [The Heater]
• Joe Maddon said Grant Balfour will not be the de facto closer, instead choosing to go closer-by-comittee. [St. Pete Times]
  
• Andrew Friedman says Juan Salas has been prepped in Durham to give the Rays more than 1 inning at times. [MLB]
  
• The Rays finally signed their 2nd round pick, LHP Kyle Lobstein avoiding the possibility of losing him to the University of Arizona basketball team. Lobstein received a $1.5 million signing bonus. Of the players signed as of yesterday morning, that is the highest bonus given to any player outside of the first round, including supplemental picks between the first and second rounds. The Rays will will wait until next season for Lobstein to make his pro debut...The Rays signed 26 of their top 28 picks. [Rays Report]
• Joe Maddon, a former catcher, spoke with Peter Gammons about what makes a good catcher. [ESPN]

"A well above-average catcher for me would be Mauer," says Rays manager Joe Maddon, a former catcher and noted catching mentor. "An average catcher would have to have the mental acumen to take charge of your staff and display a caring that can be felt by all the pitchers. Next, he has to have the receiving ability and stamina to play at least five games a week. Throwing, I would like to have at least average arm strength with a quick release and accuracy. He has to block balls well and is fearless on plays at the plate. He should be the best worker on the team, and hitting, I would settle for .250 hitter with around 10 home runs or better." "We are," says Maddon, "describing the player who wears 'the tools of intelligence.'"

• One Red Sox blog feels the Rays are upsetting the natural order of things in the AL East and they are not happy about it. [RedSoxSoul]
  

Now that Carl Crawford is going to be lost for the remainder of the regular season and Evan Longoria is out for 3 weeks, some think the Rays need to sign Barry Bonds more than ever. After months of saying the Rays wouldn't, yesterday we finally warmed-up a bit to the idea of the all-time home run king in a Rays uniform.

But then we figured out why the Rays should absolutely, positively NOT sign Bonds. Brian Sabean thinks it is a good idea.

"I certainly think if he DH’d for somebody, even at this late juncture in the season…it doesn’t take much for him to get ready, we all saw that in spring training, after 10 at-bats he’d get bored…I think it would be smart for Tampa Bay because they are in a very unique position...as history goes with baseball with a chance to win that division against those two counterparts is pretty amazing…”

This should be a no-brainer now. Even if Sabean had not traded Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser to the Twins for AJ Pierzynski, many would still consider Sabean the worst GM in baseball. This is a guy that thought it was a good idea to give $126 million to a pitcher that had averaged less than 14 wins in the previous four seasons. And the Rays are now supposed to jump on the bandwagon of lunacy?

For those of you that have ever gambled, it is like that one guy you knew in college that never won a bet. It got so bad that you started picking the exact opposite. Thanks to your buddy, you made a lot of money (If you don't know the guy we are talking about, there is a good chance you were the guy). And then it would start to roll over into the rest of your lives. Like, if you guys were trying to figure out which bar to go to that would have the hottest girls and that guy picked bar A, the rest of you knew to go to Bar B.

Bill Simmons would call this "The Sabean Corollary". In being such a bad GM, Sabean has proven the Rays should not sign Barry Bonds.

Brian Sabean thinks the Rays should Persue [sic] Bonds [MLB on XM]

Oakland 2, Tampa Bay Rays 1. (Sorry. The standings/schedule widget called in sick today. Should be back tomorrow)

THE GOOD: Scott Kazmir. We really don't want to put Kaz here, but we are trying to find something positive from last night. Anything. And Kid K has been so bad, that last night actually seemed pretty good. But SWEET FANCY MOSES! How in the H-E-DOUBLE HOCKEY STICKS does a "good" starting pitcher last only 5 innings when he only gave up 2 hits and 2 walks? He actually had three 1-2-3 innings, allowing only 5 baserunners, and yet he still needed 97 pitches. That doesn't even make sense.

THE BAD: That was as pathetic a loss as we have seen all year. Did the Rays play a throwback game without telling anybody? Give those guys some green unis and we'd swear that was the '02 Devil Rays. The Rays absolutely looked and played like a little league team last night. Exhibit A: Top of the 5th, the Rays have runners on first and second with no outs, down 2-1. Ben Zobrist makes the first out on what we assume was a safety squeeze. It was difficult to tell for sure. If it was a suicide squeeze, he took off too late. If it was a safety squeeze he took off too soon. If it was neither, Akinori Iwamura is an idiot. With Jason Bartlett now on second base, he was picked off for the second out. Mercilessly killing the rally. Exhibit B: Top of the 8th, 1 out, Willy Aybar on first base. Eric Hinske hits a lazy flyball to left field. Not good, but not terrible. Ahhh, but Aybar, who is now apparently so paranoid about not running hard, took off sprinting, rounding second and on his way to third. He was easily doubled-up, forgetting the number of outs. Exhibit C: The Rays were 2-11 with runners in scoring position, with 3 Ks.

THE TELLING: Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds. Now that Carl Crawford will likely miss the rest of the regular season, we are more luke-warm to the idea of Bonds playing for the Rays, but we still put the chances of actually happening somewhere south of 1%. The other name making the circles now is Sheffield, who was placed on waivers by the Tigers. It would be very unlikely for the Rays to put in a claim on Sheffield, even if they would like to work out a trade. The risk for the Rays is for the Tigers to not pull Sheffield back from waivers. There is a good chance the Tigers would just let the Rays take Sheffield and his '09 salary of $14MM without asking for anything in return. If we were still in July, the Rays could work a trade in which the Tigers pay a good chunk of that salary....The Red Sox traded for veteran Paul Byrd, adding to an already deep pitching staff...

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Carl Crawford has elected to have surgery on his finger and will be sidelined 6-8 weeks. There are 6.5 weeks remaining in the regular season. Andrew Friedman said if everything went well, he could play again in the regular season...It sounds like there is a good chance CC would be available should the Rays make the playoffs. [Tampa Tribune]
  
• The Rays are now hoping that Jason Bartlett, one of the weakest hitting DH's in baseball history, will be able to play SS this Friday. The Rays are also hoping that Evan Longoria, who did not have a broken wrist, but actually did, will be back in the lineup on Sept 1. [MLB]

When asked if Sept. 1 seemed like a reasonable projection for Longoria's return, Friedman answered: "Yeah, that seems reasonable. We'll re-X-ray it and go through that process again. I think it's very reasonable as we're sitting here today. But as everybody knows, bones heal at different paces, and it's too hard to say definitively at this point."

• Joe Maddon plans to use Justin Ruggiano (LF) and Rocco Baldelli (RF) against lefties while Eric Hinske and Gabe Gross will play against righties. Papa Joe also said Willy Aybar will be at 3B most days, but we can also expect to see Ben Zobrist and/or Eric Hinske at the hot corner. [St. Pete Times]
• Cliff Floyd says the biggest concern with all the injuries is the danger of the rest of the players trying to do too much. [Tampa Tribune]

"I just hope we don't all try to jump on that ship and go, 'It's me - let me be the man to take over,'" said Floyd. "No. Let's just stay within ourselves like we are and just keep it chill on the field...We all know how important those guys were. I mean, hell, you ain't going to replace them, no matter who you bring up or who you get, unless you go out and get one of the best players of the game. And you're still not replacing them because those guys are part of this team."

• Andy Sonnanstine, who grew a beard in support of Rocco Baldelli, is now clean-shaven, as is Rocco, now that Rocco has finally returned to the roster...While Rocco's "Lumberjack" look will be missed, The Duke's fuzz will not. [Bradenton Herald]
• Marc Lancaster agrees that Gary Sheffield does not seem like a good fit for the Rays. [Rays Report]
  

THE GOOD: Not a god damned thing..OK...Evan Longoria's first major league home run to tie up the game was a nice moment...And Joe Maddon actually sounding pieved in the post-game press conference was a refreshing change...Outside of that? Not a damn thing.

THE BAD: We don't want to talk about it...wait..ok, We want to talk about it...Andy Sonnanstine. This is Andy Sonnanstine. If you want the good you are going to have to put up with the bad. We all love the underdog. The righty that tops out at 88 on a good day. The guy that overcomes all the scouts and naysayers. But when you can't overpower major league hitters, there are going to be nights when you are VERY hittable. Sonny throws strikes. Yes. But his fastball is a batting practice fastball. If it doesn't have movement or if he misses over the plate, it is sayanora, adios, arivaderce, ciao, auf wiedersehen, good fuckin' night...Al Reyes? Just go back to the last part and substitute "Al Reyes" for "Andy Sonnanstine"...One stat on Sonnanstine: He faced 20 batters and threw only 17 balls. He walked 1 batter. That means to the other 19 batters he threw only 13 balls. Fine we fucking get it. You can throw strikes. But guess what? It is kinda hard to get a batter to swing at a bad pitch if you don't occasionally throw one out of the strike zone.

THE TELLING: Until Cliff Floyd and Dioner Navarro come back, the Rays are going to struggle against right handers. As it is, the bottom of the order against righties now is Shawn Riggans, Nathan Haynes and Jason Bartlett. There is not a legit major league hitter in that group and is darn near a cruise-control inning, whenever the opposing pitcher gets the bottom of the order...At least on nights like this, we have an excuse to drink.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Don't forget, tonight will be the "Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo Of The Week" over the RAYSHEADS Facebook group. Crowd participation is encouraged, but not required. [RAYSHEADS]
  
• Doeth our eyes deceive us? One writer has a Power Poll with your Tampa Bay Rays coming in at...drum roll please...#10. It's true. We are even willing to forgive the Eva Longoria joke. [Yahoo! Sports]
• Scott Kazmir pitched 2 innings in an extended spring training game. He will make the first of three scheduled rehab starts on Friday and is still on schedule to be back for the Rays on May 3 at Fenway Park...In addition, Dioner Navarro had the stitches from his hand removed and played catch. He could be back as early as Sunday. [Rays Report]
  
• The Rays have the top pick in the draft (again) in June, and DRays Bay will take a closer look at four players from which the Rays are likely to make their selection, starting with Pedro Alvarez. [DRays Bay]
• We thought we had put this whole "Rays need to sign Barry Bonds" crap? First they say that Jason Bartlett is a worse fielder than Brendan Harris now they are on to Bonds. Nevermind that he will want $10+ million. Nevermind the cancer-in-the-clubhouse thing and maybe a bad influence on all the young players. But how about the Rays already have 3 DH-types in the lineup and gave Cliff Floyd several million to be the most-days DH. Suppose the Rays should just throw that $3 million out the window? Tampa Bay Sports Blog is just trying to bait us. And it is almost working. But not yet. Now if they come back tomorrow and say Carlos Pena is overrated than we got a problem. [Tampa Bay Sports Blog]
• Pitchers have begun to take batting practice in anticipation for interleague play. [MLB]
• "The Sports Comedian" at FoxSports? Not so much. He makes a lame attempt to make fun of the Rays in relation to the entire "Red Sox jersey buried in the new Yankee stadium" mess. Let's hope for his sake, he is actually funny sometimes. [Fox Sports]
• Andrew Friedman does not make the cut in the poll to determine the "Worst GM". [Bucs Dugout]
  

Tampa Bay Devil Dogs (16 days until opening day)

DRG here again to cover my Devil Dogs while The Prof is covering competitive sledding in Canada...

Yesterday: Tampa Bay Rays 8, Blue Jays 4. I know it is only spring training but it is a nice feeling to see the Rays with a winning record after 14 games (10-3-1) and in first place without haveing to turn the newspaper upside down.

• The Good: Evan Longoria hit his second home run of the spring, a 2-run shot in the 8th. John Rodriguez was 2-3 with 2 singles and 2 RBI in his bid for the 4th outfielder spot. Grant Balfour faced 6 batters, retiring 5 and walking 1, while striking out 3. Balfour is fighting for the final bullpen spot.
• The Bad: Edwin Jackson had his second straight tough start and now is fighting for a roster spot that once looked fairly secure. 4 runs in 5 innings is bad enough, but 4 walks and no strike outs is exactly what Joe Maddon is not looking for.
• The Telling: Will Aybar got the start at third base as Maddon continues to alternate Aybar and Longoria on a regular basis. Eric Hinske played first base as he tries to convince Maddon he can be a utility player. Hector Gimenez caught the second-half of the game and now has received more playing time (17 innings) in the spring than Josh Paul (11) and Mike DiFelice (16). Shawn Riggans is going to make the team.
  

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA...

• The Prof got some serious airtime on ESPN.com yesterday as Rob Neyer debated Prof's recent post exploring the impact of Barry Bonds. [ESPN]
• Consider that yesterday Jayson Stark of ESPN.com debated the worst team in baseball, and the Rays were not even considered. Baby Steps. Stark does mention that as part of Troy Percival's contract, the Rays provided him with a 1970 Chavelle that "runs like crap", which is OK, because he and his dad restore classic automobiles. [ESPN]
• Hugging Harold Reynolds is jumping on the Rays bandwagon, which is starting to move forward with a head of steam. And yes we welcome you with open arms. Although it is tempered a bit by the news that HHR loves the Phillies. Considering the general disdain for all things Philadelphia amongst Tampa Bay fans, we are willing to overlook it this one time. [Hugging Harold Reynolds]
• For those that are curious, Delmon Young is 10-28 (.357). In typical Young fashion, 8 of the 10 hits are singles. In non-typical Young fashion he has 2 walks and only 3 strikeouts. He does have 1 home run.
• Joe Girardi still won't admonish Shelley Duncan but it sure sounds like he teammates will behind closed doors. [New York Post]

"A lot of veteran guys have talked to him," Johnny Damon told The Post yesterday. "We are telling him to keep playing hard, but keep the spikes down and the shoulders in (when sliding). This way people see you are playing hard, but no one can question you."

• Jonny Gomes will appeal his 2 game suspension. [The Heater]
• Most in the Rays clubhouse agreed that Jonny Gomes' suspension and Shelley Duncan's suspension were too similar considering what occurred. [Herald-Tribune]
  
• Andy Cannizaro returned to the Rays after missing time with a recurring back problem. His return hurts the chances of Elliot Johnson making the squad as the backup shortstop. [Tampa Bay Rays]
  
• Yesterday The Prof wrote about when we can expect the All-Star game to be held in St. Pete. Now comes word that they Rays have bid on the 2010 All-Star game. I have to imagine this is just a formality for the Rays as everybody expects the Angels to get the game. The Rays may want to just familiarize themselves with the process and possibly receive some feedback on their proposal to better utilize in the future. [LA Times]
• In keeping with the All-Star theme, last July The Serous Tip predicted that Florida would not host the All-Star game until at least 2016 noting that the AL parks get the game in the even years. Between this report and Prof's assessment, we can expect a Tampa Bay Rays hosted all-star game in 2016 or 2018. [The Serious Tip]
• A blogger talks to one of Andrew Freidman's assistants about fantasy baseball advice? OK. [Sports Judge]
• In light of recent events, The Cape Cod News wonders why baserunners are allowed to intentionally collide with catchers. [Cape Cod News]

According to one projection system, the Rays are a 92-win team with Bonds...

A few weeks ago, news broke that the Rays had brought up Barry Bonds' name in internal discussions of available free agents. At the time we made it clear that it was highly unlikely that the Rays would pursue the all-time home run king. We cited the recent clubhouse headache cast-offs, Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes as well as the overall image-conscious nature of the Rays front office.

While we argued that the Rays wouldn't sign Bonds, we never said whether or not the Rays should sign Bonds. The truth is we truly understand both sides of the argument. We loathed Keyshawn Johnson but we were sure glad he was around to help the Bucs win the Super Bowl. Would we feel the same about Bonds? If he helped the Rays make the playoffs, then 'hell yes'. And now that we know that Rocco Baldelli will start the season on the DL and his career is in jeopardy, signing Bonds may no longer be a luxury item, he might be a necessity. And as they say, 'necessity is the mother of Barry's Barcalounger' (or something like that).

Many argue that Bonds is a difference-maker. They argue he is the type of impact player that could help put the Rays over-the-top and into the playoffs. But what isn't clear, is exactly how much of an impact one team could truly expect from adding Bonds to the lineup.

To answer this question, we contacted Chone Smith of Anaheim Angels all the way. Smith is the creator of the CHONE projection system. Smith uses those projections to run a full simulation of the 2008 season. In those projections, the Rays are predicted to win 89 games and finish in third place, 3 games behind the Yankees and the Red Sox. They noted that the vast improvement was do in most part to improved pitching and defense.

So we asked Smith to insert Bonds into the Rays lineup and rerun the projections. He obliged, removing Baldelli from the roster and making Bonds the most-days DH.

According to the CHONE projection system, the Rays would score 36 more runs in 2008 with Bonds in the lineup. In the field the Rays would surrender 7 more runs on defense due to increased playing time for Gomes and Floyd in right field. Overall the Rays would be projected to win 3 more games which ups their win total to 92...smack dab in the middle of the playoff hunt.

As a point of comparison, we also asked Smith to run the same projection if Bonds were signed by the Mets, another team in need of outfield help. In this case, he removed Moises Alou and inserted Bonds. The change meant 30 more runs for the Mets and an increase from 92 to 95 wins in the standings.

This seems to indicate that even though he will be 43 years old and has two bad knees, Barry Bonds is still worth at least 3 wins over the course of an entire season over an above-average player. That number may be more like 5-7 wins over a replacement-level player. According to Baseball Prospectus, Bonds was worth 6.2 wins in 2007 over a replacement-level player. In only 126 games, the 42 year old Bonds hit .276-28-66 with a .480 OBP. His 170 OPS+ would have led the NL had he not come up about 30 plate appearances short of qualifying.

Should the Rays attempt to sign Bonds if they can get him at a discount rate? If you think that the Rays are indeed an 88-89 win team, then the answer should be 'Yes', because Bonds might indeed be the difference between the 2007 Brewers (just missed) and the 2007 Rockies (World Series).

[Ed. note: An excellent question was brought up in the comments that we don't have the answer for, but raises a good point. The Rays were an 89-win team (projected) with Rocco. They are probably more like an 86-87 win team with Jon Weber or John Rodriguez. So right now, Bonds would actually be worth approximately 5-6 wins if you consider that he is in reality replacing Weber or Rodriguez.]

Marc Topkin Wants You To Believe That It Is Possible For Barry Bonds To Sign With The Rays [Rays Index]
Signing Barry Bonds Would Go Against Everything The Rays Have Done The Past Two Years [Rays Index]
Finally, the hitter projections [Anaheim Angels all the way]
AL projected standings [Anaheim Angels all the way]
The Devil Rays, how they will go from the cellar to contenders [Anaheim Angels all the way]
Barry Bonds [Baseball Prospectus]

As we pointed out a few days ago, there have now been 64 katrillion gabillion Barry Bonds-to-the-Rays stories. For the most part we have glossed over most of these and don't feel the need to point you to every article as they all say one of two things: 1) Bonds would make Rays a better team; 2) Rays are crazy to want Bonds.

However we would be remiss if we did not point to a couple of the more ridiculous examples.

From Phil Taylor of SportsIllustrated.com:

The Rays seem to think that Bonds might have a positive influence on their young players. How naive.

Yes. that would be naive. If it were true...When the team got together and listed all of the 'pros' for signing Bonds, the list probably included home runs, OBP, more asses in the seats, national media exposure, somebody that can wear the size 8.5 cap that is gathering dust and a shot at the playoffs (not necessarily in that order). We are just guessing at this point, but we are fairly certain that "positive influence on young players" missed the cut.

From Dimitri Burikas of The Phoenix:

Barry "Flaxseed Oil" Bonds sits in his house, unwanted and unemployed by any Major League Baseball team. As if his chronic use and chronic denial of steroids weren't a cry of insecurity and a superiority complex, he has now shown just how desperate he's gotten...Barry is negotiating with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

We are not sure how one goes from "the team had internal discussions about Barry Bonds once, a while back and decided it was not worth pursuing" to "Barry is negotiating with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays", but Burikas must have one hell of a source, considering nobody else has reported that actual negotiations have occurred.

And it took a couple of days but we finally found a writer that gets it. For all the articles that mentioned why Bonds would be good for the Rays and the articles that wrote about why it would be a bad idea, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com is the first we have seen that correctly assessed the situation.

Here's the only reason Barry Bonds makes any sense in Tampa Bay: .480/.565/1.045. That, of course, is Bonds' stat line last season as a Giant... But now that we've got that out of the way, here's why this can't possibly happen: The Rays spent their entire offseason trying to weed out the troublemakers (exit Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young) and bringing in veteran role models and mentors (enter Troy Percival and Cliff Floyd). And remember those on-field Joke of the Day sessions and Closest to the Pin golf-shot duels I mentioned in Monday's edition of Three Strikes? They were all about team-building. And whatever Barry might bring the Rays in baseball attributes, team-building isn't quite the specialty of his house.

Thank you Jayson Stark. Thank you.

Too much baggage [SI.com]
Quick takes [The Phoenix]
Three Strikes: Wednesday Edition [ESPN]

Tampa Bay Rays (33 days until Opening Day)

The injury bug is striking the Rays camp early this year. After earlier scares from Scott Kazmir and David Price, we now get word that Reid Brignac will miss a week with a broken toe.

In other injury news from yesterday’s intrasquad game, Reid Brignac suffered a fractured fifth toe on his right foot when he was hit by a pitch [thrown by Chris Mason]. He is expected to be out for 4-7 days

*mumbling to self* One...Two...Three...Four...Five? Five!?

That's the friggin' pinky toe! Seven days for a pinky toe?! In our day we just taped that piggy to the 4th piggy and got our ass back on the field. We wouldn't even tell the coach.

In brighter news, Kazmir's MRI results came back and while there is a minor tear, it is officially listed as a "strained elbow". He is expected to miss two weeks. Andrew Friedman stated that Kid K could miss one or two starts in the regular season. Kazmir has other plans.

“We still think that what we have now is something where it’s possible to get out there and be ready for Opening Day,” he said.

Nice.

Kazmir out 'weeks, not months' [Rays Report]
Kazmir: I'll be ready by opening day [Rays Report]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Rocco Baldelli was the DH in this morning's intrasquad game, going 0-2. [The Heater]
• We previously mentioned that according to Anaheim All The Way's CHONE projections, the Rays are projected to win 89 games. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, wrote a guest-column today for SportsIllustrated.com explaining why the Rays are expected to win 22 more games in 2008 based on their PECOTA projections. The biggest improvement is slated to come from the defense. [SI.com]

It's in the field...that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently.

• Jon Heyman today said that one "Rays person" put the chances at signing Barry Bonds at 100:1. They went on to say that it would most likely only happen if one of the Rays current players were injured and even then, there would have to be other extenuating circumstances. A friend of Bonds said he would most likely not want to sign with the Rays as his main goal is to win a World Series. [SI.com]
  
• The Rays have the top pick in the June draft. The odds-on favorite to be the first pick, Pedro Alvarez broke a bone in his hand and will be out of action for up to six weeks. [VU Commodores]
• Rays Anatomy has posted their Rays preview for MVN's new Roster magazine. [Rays Anatomy]
  

Two in two days? It just wouldn't be fair if we didn't honor Marc Topkin after his performance yesterday...

Marc Topkin sucks because of THIS GOOGLE WEB SEARCH...THIS GOOGLE BLOG SEARCH...and THIS GOOGLE NEWS SEARCH.

And he especially sucks for those "Barry Bonds Ringtone" ads that now litter this site. What the hell would a "Barry Bonds Ringtone sound like anyway?

For the record. Marc Topkin did not write anything that wasn't true. The Tampa Bay Rays did discuss Barry Bonds.

Hey! This just in...SO DID EVERY OTHER TEAM IN BASEBALL.

It was a non-story and either Marc Topkin knew that and he worded his story just right in order to get the national media juices flowing OR Marc Topkin is an idiot. Last week everybody was talking about how good the Rays could be in 2008. This week we have 6,432 headlines that are all of the variety "The Rays Look To Put The Devil Back In Tampa Bay".

Rays ponder Bonds pursuit [St. Pete Times]

Tampa Bay Rays (34 days until Opening Day)

For those that do not follow the comments sections, let us clarify our point on Barry Bonds.

There are reasons to sign Bonds and there are reasons not to sign Bonds. We understand both sides of the argument. In fact, we believe the Rays would be a better baseball team with Bonds. And in all probability the Rays would sell more tickets and make more money with Bonds.

However, our argument has never been about "should they" or "shouldn't they". We are just saying the Rays won't. Signing Bonds would go against everything the Rays front office has done in the past two-plus years. They traded last year's headaches, Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young. They dropped the term 'Devil' because some people reacted negatively. Free agent signings have filled needs, not wants.

But most importantly, the Rays like to speak of their new 'brand' (new nickname, logos and colors). The team has gone to great lengths to promote the new brand in a positive light. It doesn't seem very likely that they are going to want America's first experience with that brand to be in the form of Barry Bonds.

The Rays have a plan. The plan is working. Now can we please get back to talking about the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays? Yes? Good.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• If you haven't had a chance to vote in this week's "Rays Confidence Survey", you can do so right HERE. [Rays Index]
• Buster Olney (behind the wall of "ESPN: Insider") believes that Barry Bonds makes sense for the Rays. There are now 6,345,122 new stories on Bonds to the Rays, good or bad? We did not want to link to any of them, but Buster Olney is very well respected. [ESPN]
  
• Of course "the players" would welcome Barry Bonds. That is because nobody thought to ask Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes, two players that would stand to lose consider playing time with the addition of Bonds. [Tampa Bay Rays]
• ESPN takes a satirical look at the Pros and Cons of Barry Bonds playing for each of the 30 teams. [ESPN]
• Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman had their visa issues resolved and will be in camp today and tomorrow. [St. Pete Times]
• The Bradenton Herald interview Evan Longoria on how he is approaching this year's Spring Training. [Bradenton Herald]
• The Tampa Tribune interviews Reid Brignac and he discusses the key step that helped him turn the corner with regard to his defense at shortstop. [Tampa Tribune]

Beginning in spring training last year, the Rays set about to revamp Brignac's throwing motion. A tall, rangy shortstop whose build recalls Cal Ripken Jr., Brignac was in the habit of delivering his throws straight over the top. That's what you want from an outfielder, which Brignac was in high school until his senior season, but not ideal for an infielder.

"You can't teach hands or anything like that, but they did a great job of getting me where I needed to be to be successful," Brignac said. "You can either take that and run with it or you can try and do your own thing, and nine times out of 10, if you listen to the advice that has been given to you and the coaching that has gone on and run with it, you learn a lot. You get better."

Brignac certainly did. He had committed 19 errors, most of them with his arm rather than his glove, in his first 90 games for the Biscuits. He committed only three more miscues in his final 43 games.

• Joe Maddon will wait until after the first two intrasquad games before deciding how much Rocco Baldelli will play in the early portion of the Spring Training schedule. [Herald-Tribune]
• Jason Bartlett and infielder coach Tom Foley think that Akinori Iwamura is making great strides in his adjustment to second base. [Tampa Bay Rays]

"He's going to be fine," said Jason Bartlett, the Rays' new shortstop. "Everybody makes a big deal about it, but he's an athlete. ... I don't think it's going to be a problem at all."

"He's doing great," Foley said. "There are some little things he has to do to help him out, but as far as fundamentals, he's doing great.

"Aki's a great athlete and seems to have a real good grip on second base already," Foley said. "It's just a matter of playing games. When you go from one side of the diamond to the other side, and all of a sudden, you get a ball in the gap: What are your responsibilities? Those things have to be reactionary once the season starts."

• One More Dying Quail compares the 2008 to the 1969 New York Mets. And as Red Sox fans they are scared. [One More Dying Quail]
  
• Joe Maddon has enlisted one player every morning to tell the Joke-of-the-Day prior to workouts. [ESPN]
• Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus attended the Tampa Bay Rays' FanFest. He even took a few pictures. [Baseball Prospectus]
  
• One blogger thinks that a new-and-improved Rays could cause havoc in the AL East, which may lead to the AL Wild Card coming from the AL Central. [The Spot Starters]
  

We will throw a tiny little party during office-hours when Barry Bonds signs someplace, even if it is Japan. Because, when he does finally sign-on to play in 2008, we can stop bringing up the absolutely ludicrous possibility of Bonds playing for the Tampa Bay Rays.

This morning Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times once again broached the subject by reporting that the Rays had internal discussions concerning the possibility of signing Bonds.

There has been no formal offer, actual wooing or even public displays of affection. But the Rays seem to have at least an eye on Barry Bonds, and team officials have recently talked internally about the all-time home run king who has been at the center of the steroids controversy.

This is a non-story and we are sick and tired of talking about it.

Of course the Rays discussed Bonds. He is a free agent. Is there somebody out there that actually thought it was a possibility that nobody ever brought up Bonds' name in a team meeting? Of course they did. They discussed him just as they did every other free agent that is available. WHO CARES?!?!

Let's ignore for a second that there are plenty of reasons that signing Bonds makes no sense for the Rays...At no point is there any indication that the Rays' brass are actually considering signing the all-time home run king.

The Rays reiterated this point through a spokesman this morning.

According to Rays officials, there is nothing to today’s published report that the team may have interest in signing Barry Bonds.

‘’It’s a non-story,’’ executive vice president Andrew Friedman said through team apokesman Rick Vaughn.

One more time for the cheap seats, or whichever seats Marc Topkin is sitting in: BARRY BONDS WILL NOT SIGN WITH THE RAYS.

Bonds' Agent: Japan Is An Option [MLB Trade Rumors]
Rays ponder Bonds pursuit [St. Pete Times]
Bonds? No. [Rays Report]

Tampa Bay Rays (40 days until Opening Day)

Just the links for now...as we crank Warrant on National Cherry Pie Day...

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• In case you missed it last night, ABC-7 is reporting that Cal Ripken Jr., is leading a group to purchase the Vero Beach Rays and move them to Charlotte County. [Rays Index]
  
• The Bradenton Herald has a list of questions concerning the 2008 Rays. [Bradenton Herald]
  
• Apparently some opponents of the Rays new stadium have been showing a rendering of the proposed ballpark with a closed roof that is yellow-orange. We assume their point is that they are trying to scare people into thinking the new stadium will be really ugly. Only one problem. The new roof will not be yellow-orange. It will be white and the Rays have released a new artist's rendering that shows the proposed ballpark with the 'roof' closed. [The Heater]
• The Rays have decided to contribute their $150 million to the funding of a new stadium in one lump sum up front as opposed to annual payments over 15 years as originally proposed. [St. Pete Times]
• They say a pitcher doesn't learn how to pitch until he suffers his first serious injury. That appears to have been the case with Jeff Niemann. [Tampa Tribune]

"When I came back from rehab, I didn't have my best breaking ball, so I had to learn how to pitch with my fastball," he said. "There are things you pick up that I would never have gotten taught if certain things hadn't happened to me. So all things considered, it kind of worked out better. I'm more of a complete pitcher because of all this stuff happening."

• David Price is quickly impressing many members of the organization, especially Jim Hickey. [Tampa Bay Rays]

"In terms of stuff, [Price is] extremely impressive," Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey said. "Very nice delivery -- under control. [He has] three pitches that, in my opinion, all have a chance to be above-average Major League pitches, [with] pretty good command of all three.

"Even if [one of his pitches] doesn't necessarily move, it carries well late through the strike zone. It gives that appearance of a little bit of a hop. I'm impressed with that. Overall, it's a very impressive package. But I don't think any of that is very much of a surprise. He is what was advertised."

• The Ledger ranks the major league rookies by who will have the biggest impact for their respective team in 2008. Evan Longoria is ranked first. [The Ledger]
• OK. we will link to this post about Barry Bonds joining the Rays. At least this one isn't serious. Unfortunately, it isn't really funny either. And it is 'McGwire', not 'McGuire'. It is bad enough that our family probably shares Fermanagh roots with the 'roider. Let's not make it any closer than it needs to be. [Barry Bonds Trial]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (3 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just wanted to take a second to once again thank DRG for holding down the fort on the weekend, allowing us to enjoy are literal hangovers in peace. We have a few things on tap for you today but until then just the links and quick reminder that today is "Don't Cry Over Spilled Milk Day", so we will try not to complain about anything that has happened with the Rays in the past.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Armchair GM takes a look at who they think are the top 5 shortstops in baseball. No. Jason Bartlett is not on the list (apparently hot fiancee is not a criteria). But they do name Reid Brignac the top prospect. [Armchair GM]

You won’t see Brignac to open the season in Tampa Bay this year. After crushing single-A pitching in 2006, Reid had a huge drop in batting average, and a less drastic drop in power numbers when he transitioned to AA in ’07. Chances are he will get a full season of grooming in AAA this year, however, given an injury or two in Tampa this summer, you might get to see another potential star for the Rays. He is capable of going .300/20/85/20 if he were to get a full season of ABs.

• Anybody tired of Top Prospect lists yet? Yes? Too bad. Next up John Sickels takes a stab at what he thinks Baseball America's list of the Top 100 prospects will look like. Evan Longoria is #2 behind Jay Bruce. In all, seven Rays make the list, not including Jeremy Hellickson who is Honorable Mention. [Minor League Ball]
• RaysBB has begun to unveil their list of the Rays top 25 prospects as voted on by a number of people. We participated, but we already see the fallibility in the concept. Remember, we are fans of the team which makes it difficult to be objective. Like most fans the list is littered with players from the lower levels that will never see the light of day in the major leagues. But when those players put up even very good numbers against other 18-20 year olds, fans start to drool incessantly. It is natural to see hope in the young. As a rule, we very rarely pay much mind to a prospect until he performs at the AA or AAA-level. That is why we will keep a guy like Elliot Johnson in our top 15, and ignore a guy like MikeMcCormick (despite our love for catchers). In spite of a horrendous 2007, Johnson has performed a strong season above A-ball, and his drop-off in 2007 was too great to be due to skill alone. [RaysBB]
  
• Rays of Light is fine with the Rays keeping Evan Longoria in the minors to start the season. [Rays of Light]
• Baseball Digest Daily held a roundtable discussion in which one of the questions asked was "Which team will surprise everyone in 2008?" Two three of the eight panel members picked the Rays. [Baseball Digest Daily]
• Rays Anatomy is back with their latest installment of "A Tale Of Two Erics" in which two points of view are offered on one subject. This time it is Dioner Navarro. [Rays Anatomy]
• Rays of Light pounds Marc Topkin for a random nonsensical comment about the possibility of the Rays signing Barry Bonds. We have covered this topic before. Signing Bonds goes against everything the Rays front office is trying to do. The Rays had two distractions on the roster last year (Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young). Where are those two players now? And Topkin thinks it is even possible the Rays would sign Bonds? After the link we will just complete our argument by quoting ourselves from November 19, when another website also clamored for Bonds . [Rays of Light]

Can we please ease up on the talk about Barry Bonds playing for the Rays? Let's say for a moment that the Rays could sign Bonds for a reasonably cheap price...and let's say for a moment that at 44 years old he can still hit 30 home runs and post a .450 OBP...and let's say he does not get suspended or spend any time in jail...there is still ZERO chance the Rays will sign Bonds. Yes, he might still be effective and yes he would help increase attendance, but if there is one thing we can all agree on about the Tampa Bay Rays front office...it is that they are very image conscious. This is a team that just became the first team since the Houston Colt .45s to change their name without moving because some people react "negatively" to the term "devil". And some people still think that it is possible for the Rays to sign a player that is A) a cheater; B) under indictment for perjury; C) universally hated by baseball fans. Let us put it this way. The Rays would not sign Barry Bonds even if he came to the Rays with a blank contract ala Andre Dawson to the Cubs in 1987.

• Bill Chastain says that Hope will flourish in Spring Training for the Rays, as he examines the few remaining question marks for the Rays opening day roster, the biggest of which could be Rocco Baldelli's health. [RaysBaseball.com]
  
• Delmon Young is happier than he has been since high school, and he has decided it is time to grow up. We will believe it when he has gone an entire season without complaining to the manager or the press. [Minneapolis Star-Tribune]

Young, 22, said he made a conscious decision to change his attitude the day after the season, when he got home from Tampa.

"It was time to clean it up and grow up," he said, as sweat dripped off his 6-3, 215-pound frame from a recent workout. "You get four years from 18-21 -- you know, college time -- where you can get in a little bit of trouble. But after that you've got to wake up and join the real world."

• There is a new Rays blog in the neighborhood, Rays Rampant. So far we are not impressed. In just their second post they combined the numbers of players lost and players added to the roster this off-season. Never mind that a player like Eric Hinske or Mike DiFelice has little chance of playing for the Rays in 2008. Our biggest problem is that when they combined the stats in each group they were sloppy in how they calculated OBP. They just added hits and walks, divided by at bats+walks. Of course anybody can tell you that much more goes into OBP. For starters you divide by plate appearances. Plate appearances include other things like Hit By Pitch and Sacrifices. Did you know it is actually possible to have an OBP lower than BA? If a player has more sacrifices than walks, it will be, as a sacrifice adds a plate appearance without adding a time on base. It has happened. It is hard to take numbers seriously when they aren't even calculated correctly. [Rays Rampant]
  

Team USA 6, Cuba 3.
Team USA won all three games over the weekend including a 6-3 victory over Cuba on Sunday in the final to win the 2007 World Cup. Both Evan Longoria and Justin Ruggiano contributed in the final, with Longoria going 2-5 with 2 runs scored and Ruggiano had 3 hits in 4 at bats with an RBI single and a run scored. Ruggiano added a stolen base.

Team USA finished 9-1 in the tournament. Longoria was 11-38 (.289), with 3 doubles, a triple, a home run and 5 RBI. Ruggiano was 10-30 (.333) and 8 RBI. He tied Andy LaRoche with a team best 3 home runs.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Can we please ease up on the talk about Barry Bonds playing for the Rays? Let's say for a moment that the Rays could sign Bonds for a reasonably cheap price...and let's say for a moment that at 44 years old he can still hit 30 home runs and post a .450 OBP...and let's say he does not get suspended or spend any time in jail...there is still ZERO chance the Rays will sign Bonds. Yes, he might still be effective and yes he would help increase attendance, but if there is one thing we can all agree on about the Tampa Bay Rays front office...it is that they are very image conscious. This is a team that just became the first team since the Houston Colt .45s to change their name without moving because some people react "negatively" to the term "devil". And some people still think that it is possible for the Rays to sign a player that is A) a cheater; B) under indictment for perjury; C) universally hated by baseball fans. Let us put it this way. The Rays would not sign Barry Bonds even if he came to the Rays with a blank contract ala Andre Dawson to the Cubs in 1987. [DRays Bay]
• We still think the Rays hope that Juan Salas steps up and claims the closer role in the near future, but TBSF says that the closer-in-waiting might be Calvin Medlock. [Tampa Bay Sports Fanatic]
• The St. Pete Times has generated an artists rendering of what the Tampa Bay Rays proposed stadium might look like. [TampaBay.com]
  
• Tampa Bay's 10 obtained documents that detailed discussion the Rays have had with the city of St. Pete in regards to the proposed new stadium on the site of Al Lang Field. They show that the city has (not surprisingly) expressed concerns over the financing of the new stadium. [TampaBays10]
  

While the Rays paint a rosy picture about moving from Tropicana Field to Al Lang stadium in downtown, the city says there are many uncertainties including the recent Florida Supreme Court decision about using what's called tax increment funding to finance the facility.

St. Petersburg is also worried about the uncertainty of the statewide tax referendum that could reduce the available tax dollars to the city as well as the need to maximize retail space at the current Tropicana site.

Tthere is uncertainty about traffic circulation, parking and other impacts at the new downtown site. The city is also concerned about financial terms that will be acceptable to everyone.

• The Tampa Bay Rays believe that a new stadium could generate $1 billion in new revenue for the city of St. Pete, along with 2,500 new permanent jobs and 14,000 temporary jobs. [MLB News Blog]
• The Rays sent new personalized jerseys to several legislators, but claim they were not intended to sway their vote on a stadium subsidy. [tampabay.com]

"It's the $60-million jersey," joked Sen. Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, who got one in the mail Friday.

• Joe Maddon thinks that several voters did not vote for Delmon Young on their Rookie of the Year ballots because of his reputation and personal prejudice. Young finished second in the voting and received three first place votes, but eight voters did not include Young in their top 3. [tampabay.com]
  

"It's really disturbing," Maddon said Friday. "I can see him not winning the award, but leaving him off eight ballots is just a sign of personal prejudice."

• Of course, it may have been because Delmon Young posted the lowest OPS (.724) for any right fielder in baseball in 2007. [Recondite Baseball]
  

Devil Rays 7, Yankees 6 (10 innings).

It is easy to talk about how good a hitter Dioner Navarro has been on the morning after he hit a walk-off extra-inning home run to beat the hated Yankees.

But exactly how good has Navi been in the second half? Since the All-Star break, Navarro is hitting .293/.348/.494. He has hit 8 home runs and driven in 31. He has the 3rd highest OPS (.842) of any catcher since the break, trailing only Jorge Posada (1.061) and Chris Snyder (.932).

Compare that to his first half numbers and we have the ultimate "Tale of Two Hitters". At the break Navi was hitting .177/.238/.254 with 1 home run and 13 RBI. His OPS of .491 ranked 33rd among catcher with at 150 plate appearances...DEAD LAST.

All this is makes for a neat story about a guy that finally found his stroke in the 2007 season, but at this point, of bigger concern to us is: What can we expect from Dioner Navarro in 2008? Will he maintain his second half pace into the 2008 season? Will he continue to develop and post numbers in 2008 even better than his 2007 second half numbers? Or...are the second half numbers the result of a "hot streak" and the true Dioner Navarro is somewhere in between his first half and second half totals?

On June 22, Navi was hitting .170 and we presented some numbers to indicate that Navi's poor first half was just as much the result of "bad luck" as it was poor hitting. In short the number of line drives he was hitting should have been translating into more base hits. And in the second half a lot more of those line-drives started finding holes.

Also keep in mind that Navarro is posting an .842 OPS as a catcher in the second half of a season. The second-half of a season is when catchers are supposed to wear down and slow down. If Navi had posted an .842 OPS in the first-half, would anybody be clamoring for the Rays to bring in a free agent catcher next season? Not likely.

But the most telling stat about Lil Pudge is 24. As in that will be Navi's age on opening day in 2008. Anybody want to take a guess as to what Jorge Posada's numbers were when he was 23? Try .255-8-51...in AAA! *Broken Record warning* Catchers are notoriously slow developers as hitters.

So what can we expect in 2008? Can Navi develop a power game and hit 25 home runs? Not likely. He isn't exactly threatening the catwalks or the center field restaurant with his home runs. Most of them are line drives that scrape the top of the wall. But we do believe that when Navi fully develops he is a .320-.330 hitter. He hits a ton of line drives and he has excellent plate discipline.

Our conservative guess for Navarro's 2008 line is .300-15-70 with a .370 OBP. For a catcher that is above-average defensively, that is plenty of offense.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• No surprise here. Carl Crawford will not play in the final week. [Devil Rays]
• Joe Maddon met with Akinori Iwamura and asked him to work out at second base in the off-season. [TBO]
• Gary Shelton says that this last place finish feels a lot different from years past and that there is hope for the years to come. But the most telling question that Shelton asks is: "How in the heck did this team finish last, anyway?" [tampabay.com]
  
• Buster Olney brings up the possibility of Barry Bonds playing for the Devil Rays, suggesting that the Rays and the Royals could be his only options for 2008. We find it hard to believe that a 73 year old Bonds is going to sign a subpar contract to play for a non-contender. Not to mention is the upgrade to Bonds at $5-8 million worth it, when the Rays have Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli (not to mention Elijah Dukes) at DH at les than half the price? This is a non-story. [MLB Trade Rumors]