THE GOOD: Finally, the Rays caught a couple of breaks. First was in the second inning after Matt Garza gave up a leadoff single. With the runner going on the pitch to stay out of a double-play, Lyle Overbay then hit a bouncer back up the middle that looked like a catcher trying to throw out a basestealer. The ball bounced chest-high right over the second base bag, right to a waiting Jason Bartlett, who caught it and threw to first for the double-play. Then in the 7th, after retiring the first 2 batters, Garza gave up back-to-back singles, the second of which went under the glove of Willy Aybar, essentially giving the Jays an extra out in the inning. Garza survived to get the next batter to pop out. Finally, in the 9th inning, with a 1-0 lead Joe Maddon brought in Dan Wheeler and looking like a genius, Papa Joe moves Justin Ruggiano from right to left field. With 2 outs, Rod Barajas hit a ball that if a foot farther is a home run. As it was, Ruggiano timed his jump perfectly and his glove and the ball reach the top of the fence at the same moment, and somehow the ball stuck in Ruggiano's glove. Game over...We've been saying it for a while, but if there was any doubt, there shouldn't be now. The Yankees are dead. The Yankees are roadkill.

THE BAD: Holes in the Rays' bats. The 11 strikeouts isn't terible. But when 9 of them come in the first 4 innings, that is terrible. It is hard to tell, how much of it was the Rays having a bad night or how much was just David Purcey pitching light's out. He threw a complete game needing only 90 pitches. 72 of those pitches were strikes. A truly Madduxian performance. Just gotta tip the cap and be grateful for Carlos Pena's latest home run, or else they might still be playing.

THE TELLING: The Rays magic number for the Wild Card is 25 over the Twins, with 31 games remaining.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Dioner Navarro had an MRI done on both of his hamstrings and no damage was detected. He is listed as day-to-day. [Rays Report]
• Evan Longoria hit off a tee and Joe Maddon said everything went well. [The Heater]
• We have been trying to defend the attendance for a while now. But after this week, we don't know what to say anymore. John Romano is right: "And, in a remarkable display of grace under pressure, we continue to stay away from Tropicana Field in droves." Matt Silverman has a couple of quotes that reveal the frustration of the team. [St. Pete Times]

"The TV ratings are high, and that's a great sign, but it hasn't translated to the number of people at Tropicana Field. It really takes the wind out of our sails," Silverman said. "We've poured our hearts and souls into making this a great draw, and a great fan experience. And to come home after a great road trip and have … the smallest crowds in major-league baseball was discouraging.

• Baseball Mastermind takes a look back at their preseason preview of the Rays to see what they got right...As a side-note, we have a few friends that got the Rays over-under for wins prior to the season at 77. They laughed at how "high" it was, bet the under, calling it the best line they had ever seen. Like a broken record, they all chimed in, "I don't care how improved the Rays are, they will never win 78 games when they have to play the Red Sox and Yankees 18 or 19 times each." We warned them that it was not as impossible as they thought. Does anybody listen to us? Suckers. [Baseball Mastermind]
• This should put to rest any lingering thoughts that the Rays should have drafted Pedro Alvarez with the top pick in June. Turns out Scott Boras refused to do any negotiating until just hours before the deadline and when Alvarez finally stepped up and pushed the negotiations just before the midnight deadline, a deal got done. Only, now Boras and Alvarez are contesting the deal, saying it was not submitted in time and of course they want more money. In other words, Alvarez and Boras are not happy that Buster Posey got more money. [MLB]
  

Durham 6, Indianapolis 5. Nathan Haynes singled home the tying run in the top of the 9th and then scored the go-ahead run on a sac fly by Jon Weber...Jeff Niemann struck out 6 and walked 6 in 4.2 innings, allowing 2 hits and 5 runs. He also hit a batter. The big blow was a bases loaded double in the second inning after Niemann had walked the bases loaded. Niemann has now walked 16 batters in his last 20.2 innings pitched...Chris Richard was 2-5 with a double and a home run. He drove in 3...John Jaso added his 3rd home run since being promoted from Montgomery...Fernando Perez stole his 39th base. He is 4th in the IL in steals...Dan Johnson was 2-5 and leads the IL with a .969 OPS and .422 OBP.

Jacksonville 7, Montgomery 3. James Houser made his first start in a month and was limited to 1.1 innings, walking 3 and giving up 1 hit and a run...Ryan Reid pitched 2 perfect innings of relief with 2 Ks...JT Hall hit a solo home run.

Jupiter 7, Vero Beach 5. Brandon Mann struck out 8 in 5 innings, but allowed 6 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks. He gave up 3 home runs...Hector Gimenez hit a 2-run home run for the D-Rays.

Columbus 3, Hagerstown 2 (13). Jesse Darcy struck out 5 and walked none in 6 innings, allowing 2 runs (1 earned). He is 12th in the SAL in ERA (3.12)...Henry Wrigley was 4-5 with 2 doubles and a walk, while Maiko Loyola finished 1-5 with a double, walk and his 41st stolen base. He is now 4th in the SAL in steals.

Hudson Valley 7, Oneonta 2.

Bristol 6, Princeton 1 (gm 1). Tim Beckham went 0-3 with a strikeout.

Bristol 15, Princeton 2 (gm 2). Tim Beckham went 0-3 with a walk.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM...

• James Houser who missed the last month with minor knee surgery has been activated. [Biscuits' Batter]
  
• The Pirates were able to sign Pedro Alvarez to a minor league deal afterall, with a $6 million signing bonus, just short of Tim Beckham's deal for $6.15 million. [USA Today]
• Buster Posey, another player the Rays apparently considered with the top pick signed for $6.2 million. His deal was also a minor league deal...We could be wrong but the only draftee that we know of that received a major league deal was LHP Brian Matusz with the Orioles #4 pick. [San Francisco Chronicle]
  

THE GOOD: Cliff Floyd's knees. Somehow Floyd's legs were still intact after the game, despite having to run the bases a whopping 5 times. Twice Floyd had to score all the way from first base on extra-base hits by Willy Aybar. Floyd scored 4 runs in total.

THE BAD: James Shields. Shields walked a season-high 5 batters in only 5 innings...The Bullpen. No they were actually pretty good yesterday. Even though Grant Balfour blew the save after relieving the injured Troy Percival, as a group they only allowed 2 runs (1 earned) in 7 innings. However, Joe Maddon had to use his entire bullpen, all 7 relief pitchers, to get through the extra-inning affair. And while they performed well, some will be tired tonight in Texas and some may be unavailable. That puts a lot of pressure on Matt Garza tonight to work deep into the game...BJ Upton's absolute lack of any baseball instincts on the basepaths. In the first inning, with Upton on first, Carlos Pena flied out to deep right-center. Upton thought the ball would drop and took off, rounding second on his way to third. When he realized the ball was caught, he ran straight back to first base without even pretending to touch second base on the way. Upton was doubled-up on the appeal.

THE TELLING: Paul Byrd will make his Red Sox debut tonight. They might score 19 runs and win, but it won't be because of Byrd.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Troy Percival was once again injured during a play. This time he fielded a sac bunt and rather than flip it first base for the out, he instead chased the runner into foul territory, spraining his knee. Marc Topkin reported Percival was on crutches last night and is likely headed to the DL after further evaluation today. [The Heater]
• Carl Crawford had sugery on his injured finger yesterday and it "went well". [MLB]
  
• MLBTradeRumors takes a look at some of the waiver-wire possibilities for the Rays. Does Rich Aurelia get anybody excited? [MLBTradeRumors]
• Looks like the Pirates might not be able to sign Pedro Alvarez prior to Friday's deadline. If that happens, there won't be any second-guessing on the Rays' selection of Tim Beckham. The sticking point appears to be a spot on the 40-man roster, which of course would move Alvarez closer to the majors and free agency. [MLBTradeRumors]
  
• This should about seal the Mets fate...And by fate we of course mean death. [MetsBlog]
• Bob Nightengale agrees with us that the Yankees are roadkill...OK. Not the word he used, but close enough. [USA Today]
  

Pawtucket 14, Durham 7. Jeff Niemann gave up 10 runs in 4.2 innings including 4 home runs. Jon Weber, Justin Ruggiano and Elliot Johnson homered for the Bulls. Reid Brignac was 1-3 with his 20th double.

Carolina 7, Montgomery 6. Chris Nowak and Gabby Martinez homered for the Biscuits. Martinez' shot was a grand slam. Mike Prochaska gave up 6 runs in 5 innings.

Brevard Co. 3, Vero Beach 2. Jeremy Hellickson took his first loss of the season and drops to 5-1 after giving up 3 runs in 6 innings. He struck out 5 and walked 1.

Greenville 6, Columbus 2.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM...

• Jeremy Hellickson spoke to his hometown newspaper, and said he is hoping for an all-star break promotion. [Des Moines Register]
• James Houser is battling a knee injury and will be skipped the next time through the Biscuits rotation. [Biscuits Batter]
  
• The Sporting News previews the MLB Draft. Gerry Fraley says that one NL Executive says that RJ Harrison is being pressured to select Buster Posey suggesting that the Rays are more concerned about drafting need over talent. This goes against everything the Rays have ever said about the draft process, so it will be interesting to see if the Rays do pass on a more talented player. [The Sporting News]
• However, DRays Bay has a quote from RJ Harrison that suggests that he prefers Pedro Alvarez. [DRays Bay]
• According to Marc Lancaster the Rays have not even narrowed down the top pick, having spent more time trying to figure out who will be available in the second round and beyond. [Tampa Tribune]
  

Durham 10, Pawtucket 6.

Chattanooga 4, Montgomery 0.

Vero Beach 6, Brevard Co. 2.

Greenville 6, Columbus 3.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM...

• Desmond Jennings, who had yet to play this season, has been participating in extended spring games and could be activated today or tomorrow. [Biscuits Batter]
  
• No surprise here. King David Price makes the weekly installment of Baseball America's "Prospect Hot Sheet". Unfortunately, Glenn Gibson makes the "Who's Not" list. [Baseball America]

After making his much-anticipated debut on May 22, Price came out for his second start and beat a three-time Cy Young Award winner. Martinez praised Price's performance and ability after watching him fan nine guys and allow just two hits. On the season, he is now 2-0, 0.00 in 11 innings with 13 strikeouts, one walk and five hits. At this rate, Price won't be in the Florida State League for long.

• Might the Rays actually draft a 'nole? Oh god, please no. [ESPN]
• Baseball America says Tim Beckham is the bestest in the land! Or Pedro Alvarez who comes in at #2. Buster Posey is only #4 on their list. Listen to them. They are smart. [Baseball America]
  

With yesterday's off-day, we wanted to take a moment and promote our campaign to get CARL CRAWFORD (and Dioner Navarro) ELECTED TO START THE ALL-STAR GAME.

As Rays fans we don't necessarily need to generate all the votes necessary, but if we can get Crawford on a roll, when the first results are released to the public, other fans will see he is close and they will start voting for him.

And while Dioner Navarro is also deserving, remember, the All-Star starting lineup is a popularity contest as much as it is a reflection of who deserves to be there. CC is already a household name among baseball fans and has a better shot at getting elected. That being said, make ure you vote for Navi also.

• VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN: You can use this link to vote up to 25 times online. Once you have reached your limit, switch email addresses. If you run out of email addresses, make one up. If that doesn't work make your co-workers vote. Make your spouse/children vote. There is no reason for any Rays fan to NOT vote several hundred times.
  
• DO NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING PLAYERS: Vlad Guerrero, Maglio Ordonez, Ichiro, Gary Sheffield, Grady Sizemore or ANY YANKEES OR RED SOX outfielders. These are the players that Crawford is most likely going to be battling for a starting outfield spot. We don't care who else you vote for. Fill it out with deserving players or click the circle next to all the Rays or leave 'em blank. And remember, outfielders are grouped together. There is no distinction between left fielders and center/right fielders.
• VOTE EVERY DAY: We will remind you and provide the link every morning in the "Webtopia" section of "The Hangover". Each day you should go back and vote another 20-25 times.

VOTE OR DIE

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Don't forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven't voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
• Here is roundup of what is being said about the Orioles in the national media. [Baltimore Sun]
• Joe Maddon likes himself some meat and appears to be just the perfect person to try and stuff "two pounds of bologna in a one-pound bad". [Bugs and Cranks]
• USA Today takes a look at today's managers and sees that major league experience is not a prerequisite for the job. Joe Maddon did not get past A-ball in his playing days. [USA Today]
• Baseball Mastermind would like to see more hype in the baseball draft. They also think the Rays would be crazy to draft Pedro Alvarez since they now have Evan Longoria signed long-term at third base...If the Rays draft Alvarez, they almost certainly will move him to first base, where the Rays will have an opening near the end of the '09 or beginning of the '10 season, which is exactly when Alavarez will likely be ready for the big leagues. [Baseball Mastermind]
  
• Big League Stew lists Scott Kazmir as one of the five hottest players in baseball. [Big League Stew]
  
• UniWatch is reporting that the Rays will wear St. Pete Pelicans throwback uniforms on June 21st. Here is a sketch of what those will look like. [UniWatch]
• AL MVP? Josh Hamilton, who is averaging more than a RBI per game. AL Rookie of the Year? Not Evan Longoria. Yet. [Baseball Happenings]
• Yes. Josh Hamilton has 53 RBI in 49 games and the Rays don't have an everyday right fielder...Just Sayin'. [Baseball Musings]
  
• MLB Trade Rumors indicates that several recent stories suggest that a number of younger players and veteran agents are not happy about the recent trend of young players surrendering their first free agency years in long-term deals...Although BJ Upton is not mentioned, there have been reports in the past that suggest that Upton could fall into this group. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  

DRG here again to get you through the weekend. I can be reached here..

• The Good: The 2nd inning was Scott Kazmir's coming out party. In the 1st inning, Kid K'd fastball was only 88-89, much like it was in his first start off the DL. However, in the 2nd inning, Kazmir struck out Juan Rivera to lead off the inning with only one fastball that broke 88. That seemed to be the at bat that gave him his confidence back, because in the next at bat, threw four fastballs that were clocked at 92. He walked that batter, but from that point forward, Kazmir was consistently 92-93 with his fastball including his 108th, and last, pitch in the 6th which was 93.
  
• The Bad: Mimosas, Coronas and whatever that blue crap was.
  
• The Telling: Stuart Sternberg predicted 50 home win in 2007. We laughed. They won 37. 2008 came and Sternberg predicted 50 home wins again. Again we laughed. The Rays have now won 8 straight at home (a record) and now sit at 12-7 at home this season. Brace yourselves. The Rays are on pace for 51 home wins in 2008. I can't make it up...PS, the Rays are now in second place and 1 game back of wild card lead...PPS, take a look at those standings above and soak it in for a moment. The season is now 20% completed and the Rays are not only not in last place, but they are in 2nd place, ahead of the O's. Ahead of the Jay. And ahead of the Yankees.
  

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA...

• ManRay is baaaaaaaccccccckkkkkkkkk. [Armchair GM]
  
• James Shields and Joe Maddon discuss the possibility of Shields throwing a no-hitter. [Tampa Tribune]
  
• Marc Topkin says that the Rays have narrowed their top choce down to 5 players...Prof loves the high school shortstop Tim Beckham. Personally, I am starting to lean towards one of the two catchers. I know the Rays do not draft for need, but with Dioner Navarro behind the plate and no obvious catching prospects in the system (John Jaso is not a catcher long-term), I love the idea of drafting a high school catcher. But hey, what do I know. [St. Pete Times]
• Beyond the Boxscore breaks down the two most likely candidates for the #1 pick. Tim Beckham and Florida State catcher Buster Posey. My Gator allegiances aside. Um. What? nevermind. Momentary lack of respect for my alma mata. Screw Posey. [Beyond the Boxscore]
  
• The New York Times takes a look at New York City native and potential #1 overall pick Pedro Alvarez. He says he would love to join David Price, his former Vandy teammate, in the Rays system...Sorry. As long as Scott Boras is his agent, he will not be drafted by the Rays. Even if the Rays thought they could afford his signing bonus demands, the bigger factor is that Boras almost always takes his clients to free agency and never signs away arbitration and free agency seasons. A key to the Rays franchise. [New York Times]
  
• Gary Glover and Al Reyes threw bullpen sessions yesterday. Sounds like Reyes is still a few days away, but Glover could be back today or tomorrow. [The Heater]
• Joe Maddon says that Akinori Iwamura is getting better at leading off and says that there are no plans to move him out of the spot. [Tampa Tribune]
  
• Her Rays thinks Akinori Iwamura's luck is a' changin with his new haircut. [Her Rays]
• Several Rays will use pink bats today for Mother's Day in honor of breast cancer awareness. [St. Pete Times]
  

THE GOOD: Carlos Pena hitting his first home run in almost a month (Apr 12).

THE BAD: With 2 on in the first, Evan Longoria hit a ball in left-center that would have been a sure double, IF Manny Being Manny was in left field. Instead he was DHing with David Oritiz getting the day off. Jacoby Ellsbury made the catch costing the Rays 2 runs early in the game...Shawn Riggans. 2 passed balls, an error and 0-2. Not good. Anybody think Mike DiFelice will be back sooner rather than later?...Jonny Gomes being robbed of a double on a ball that was clearly fair off the Green Monster and nobody appeared to even question the call, much less ask for help from another umpire...

THE TELLING: We guess the positive spin would be that if entering last weekend's series, and somebody offered us 3 wins in 6 games against the Sox, we probably would have taken it and ran.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• BJ Upton was in the lineup after missing the last 2 games with a sore shoulder, but Joe Maddon said that Upton "didn't want to turn it loose." And Upton admitted to some hesitation in his approach. [Tampa Tribune]
• Akinori Iwamura is one of only 2 starting second basmen in the majors without an error. [USA Today]
• Marc Lancaster takes a look at the upcoming draft and wonders who the Rays will draft. RJ Harrison says that the choice is not nearly as clear-cut as it was last year with David Price. As a side note, does anybody know why it is OK in baseball for a player to select an agent while they are still competing in college, as Pedro Alvarez has with Scott Boras and yet it is not OK in basketball and football? This one really stumps us. And yes, we realize that the player doesn't actually "sign" with the agent yet, but they are still aligned with one. And we are pretty sure that would still be illegal in baseball and football. [Tampa Tribune]
  
• Fox Sports list the Rays as only the 4th worst franchise in sports and only 3rd in baseball behind the Pirates and the Royals. [Fox Sports]
  

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Bleacher Report breaks down the first month of the season for the Rays. [Bleacher Report]
• Her Rays breaks down the AL East after the first month. [Her Rays]
  
• The Rays are #9 in this week's power rankings from The Sporting News. [The Sporting News]
• Big League Stew wonders if the Rays are for real. [Big League Stew]
• Whoever is the oddman out when Scott Kazmir returns might be able to stay a little longer as Al Reyes is not expected to come off the DL on Thursday as originally thought. The means Kurt Birkins will be sent down when Kid K rejoins the team. [The Heater]
  
• Carter Gaddis looks at the upcoming return of Scott Kazmir and wonders who is going to be the starting pitcher without a chair when the music stops. [Tampa Tribune]
• Outs Per Swing also takes a look at who might be out of the rotation. [Outs Per Swing]
• Rays the Roof names four Orioles that they hate. [Rays the Roof]
  
• David Price threw another live bullpen session. He is expected to make the first of 3 or 4 extended spring training starts on Friday before reporting to Vero Beach. [The Heater]
• The Rays would make history if they selected Vandy's Pedro Alvarez with the first pick of the draft in June. [USA Today]
• James Shields was named player of the week for the AL. [MLB]
  
• Scott Kazmir made his final rehab start on Monday night for the Durham Bulls. Everything went well and he is scheduled to make his 2008 debut on Sunday in Boston. [News & Observer]
  

THE GOOD: Not a god damned thing..OK...Evan Longoria's first major league home run to tie up the game was a nice moment...And Joe Maddon actually sounding pieved in the post-game press conference was a refreshing change...Outside of that? Not a damn thing.

THE BAD: We don't want to talk about it...wait..ok, We want to talk about it...Andy Sonnanstine. This is Andy Sonnanstine. If you want the good you are going to have to put up with the bad. We all love the underdog. The righty that tops out at 88 on a good day. The guy that overcomes all the scouts and naysayers. But when you can't overpower major league hitters, there are going to be nights when you are VERY hittable. Sonny throws strikes. Yes. But his fastball is a batting practice fastball. If it doesn't have movement or if he misses over the plate, it is sayanora, adios, arivaderce, ciao, auf wiedersehen, good fuckin' night...Al Reyes? Just go back to the last part and substitute "Al Reyes" for "Andy Sonnanstine"...One stat on Sonnanstine: He faced 20 batters and threw only 17 balls. He walked 1 batter. That means to the other 19 batters he threw only 13 balls. Fine we fucking get it. You can throw strikes. But guess what? It is kinda hard to get a batter to swing at a bad pitch if you don't occasionally throw one out of the strike zone.

THE TELLING: Until Cliff Floyd and Dioner Navarro come back, the Rays are going to struggle against right handers. As it is, the bottom of the order against righties now is Shawn Riggans, Nathan Haynes and Jason Bartlett. There is not a legit major league hitter in that group and is darn near a cruise-control inning, whenever the opposing pitcher gets the bottom of the order...At least on nights like this, we have an excuse to drink.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Don't forget, tonight will be the "Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo Of The Week" over the RAYSHEADS Facebook group. Crowd participation is encouraged, but not required. [RAYSHEADS]
  
• Doeth our eyes deceive us? One writer has a Power Poll with your Tampa Bay Rays coming in at...drum roll please...#10. It's true. We are even willing to forgive the Eva Longoria joke. [Yahoo! Sports]
• Scott Kazmir pitched 2 innings in an extended spring training game. He will make the first of three scheduled rehab starts on Friday and is still on schedule to be back for the Rays on May 3 at Fenway Park...In addition, Dioner Navarro had the stitches from his hand removed and played catch. He could be back as early as Sunday. [Rays Report]
  
• The Rays have the top pick in the draft (again) in June, and DRays Bay will take a closer look at four players from which the Rays are likely to make their selection, starting with Pedro Alvarez. [DRays Bay]
• We thought we had put this whole "Rays need to sign Barry Bonds" crap? First they say that Jason Bartlett is a worse fielder than Brendan Harris now they are on to Bonds. Nevermind that he will want $10+ million. Nevermind the cancer-in-the-clubhouse thing and maybe a bad influence on all the young players. But how about the Rays already have 3 DH-types in the lineup and gave Cliff Floyd several million to be the most-days DH. Suppose the Rays should just throw that $3 million out the window? Tampa Bay Sports Blog is just trying to bait us. And it is almost working. But not yet. Now if they come back tomorrow and say Carlos Pena is overrated than we got a problem. [Tampa Bay Sports Blog]
• Pitchers have begun to take batting practice in anticipation for interleague play. [MLB]
• "The Sports Comedian" at FoxSports? Not so much. He makes a lame attempt to make fun of the Rays in relation to the entire "Red Sox jersey buried in the new Yankee stadium" mess. Let's hope for his sake, he is actually funny sometimes. [Fox Sports]
• Andrew Friedman does not make the cut in the poll to determine the "Worst GM". [Bucs Dugout]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (33 days until Opening Day)

The injury bug is striking the Rays camp early this year. After earlier scares from Scott Kazmir and David Price, we now get word that Reid Brignac will miss a week with a broken toe.

In other injury news from yesterday’s intrasquad game, Reid Brignac suffered a fractured fifth toe on his right foot when he was hit by a pitch [thrown by Chris Mason]. He is expected to be out for 4-7 days

*mumbling to self* One...Two...Three...Four...Five? Five!?

That's the friggin' pinky toe! Seven days for a pinky toe?! In our day we just taped that piggy to the 4th piggy and got our ass back on the field. We wouldn't even tell the coach.

In brighter news, Kazmir's MRI results came back and while there is a minor tear, it is officially listed as a "strained elbow". He is expected to miss two weeks. Andrew Friedman stated that Kid K could miss one or two starts in the regular season. Kazmir has other plans.

“We still think that what we have now is something where it’s possible to get out there and be ready for Opening Day,” he said.

Nice.

Kazmir out 'weeks, not months' [Rays Report]
Kazmir: I'll be ready by opening day [Rays Report]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Rocco Baldelli was the DH in this morning's intrasquad game, going 0-2. [The Heater]
• We previously mentioned that according to Anaheim All The Way's CHONE projections, the Rays are projected to win 89 games. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, wrote a guest-column today for SportsIllustrated.com explaining why the Rays are expected to win 22 more games in 2008 based on their PECOTA projections. The biggest improvement is slated to come from the defense. [SI.com]

It's in the field...that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently.

• Jon Heyman today said that one "Rays person" put the chances at signing Barry Bonds at 100:1. They went on to say that it would most likely only happen if one of the Rays current players were injured and even then, there would have to be other extenuating circumstances. A friend of Bonds said he would most likely not want to sign with the Rays as his main goal is to win a World Series. [SI.com]
  
• The Rays have the top pick in the June draft. The odds-on favorite to be the first pick, Pedro Alvarez broke a bone in his hand and will be out of action for up to six weeks. [VU Commodores]
• Rays Anatomy has posted their Rays preview for MVN's new Roster magazine. [Rays Anatomy]
  

Tampa Bay Devil Dogs (5 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Baseball America names their preseason college All-Americans. The list includes Vanderbilt's third baseman Pedro Alvarez.

Alvarez has been a first-team All-American and the top hitter on Team USA in each of his first two seasons, and his bat speed and strength make him the best hitter for both average and power in college baseball. His range is limited and his hands are average at best, but he has worked hard on his defense and has enough arm strength for the hot corner.

"He's the best position player in the draft," a front-office executive said. "He can hit and he can stay at third base. He stacks up with Evan Longoria and Alex Gordon, who got put in that same category. He's a better hitter than we had last year, when the top guys were Matt Wieters and Matt LaPorta."

Alvarez is odds-on choice to be the top overall selection in the June draft by the Rays. A third baseman, but many feel he can transition to first base quite well. Hmmmm?

• June, 2008: Drafted.
• July, 2008: Debut at Hudson Valley with a late call-up to Columbus.
  
• 2009: Spend season in Vero Beach and Montgomery.
  
• 2010: Promoted to Durham for the first half of the year. 2010 also happens to be the last year of Carlos Pena's extension. Pena traded prior to July 31. Alvarez makes his debut in September, 2010.
  

Anyone think this scenario crossed their minds when they decided to give Pena a three-year deal?

2008 Preseason College All-Americans [Baseball America]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Catcher Matt Spring has been invited to Spring Training. The Rays' 4th round pick in 2004, Spring split time between Columbus and Montgomery, logging only 59 games, batting a combined .186-7-29. Don't read too much into this. Teams have like 23 kazillion pitchers on hand when camp first starts, and those pitchers need catchers to throw to. Spring is a filler. [Riverwalk Talk]
  
• Ian Browne wonders if another team in the AL East can challenge the Red Sox or the Yankees. Now that the O's have traded Erik Bedard, and not Peter Angelos, I would think it is safe to rule them out. [MLB]

"Yes, we're young. And we have lacked some experience. But now we've gained some experience over the past two years. Now is the time to start making this thing work a little bit. So I love the American League East. I wouldn't want to play anywhere else."-Joe Maddon

• Yahoo! Sports ranks the AL catchers. 14 catchers, Dioner Navarro comes in 13th. [Yahoo! Sports]

Navarro throws well but is only an average receiver. Conditioning is always an issue for him. He hit only .227 with a .286 on-base percentage last season.

• DRays Bay updates their roster odds. [DRays Bay]
• 376 days until Rays pitchers and catchers report to their new 2009 Spring Training home at Charlotte Sports Park. [Charlotte Sun-Herald]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (24 days until pitchers and catchers report)
DRays Bay looks at the history of Japanese position players that have made the switch to Major League Baseball and their improvement (or lack thereof) from year one to year two. History does not bode well for Akinori Iwamura as only Hideki Matsui improved significantly and the other five players on the list showed a decline in OPS in their second year. This does not worry us at all. Of the players on the list, only Matsui had to significantly alter his approach at the plate when he came to the US.

When he came to the Yankees, Matsui hit only 16 home runs in his first season, despite hitting 40 home runs in three of his 11 seasons in Japan. In year two, Matsui made adjustments to the pitchers, the bigger parks and improved his home run total to 31. More impressive was that even though he was starting to hit more home runs, he recognized that he was never going to be the same home run hitter in the US as he was in Japan and transformed himself into a doubles machine. In 11 seasons in Japan, Matsui only exceeded 30 doubles on three occasions with a career-high of 34. Matsui exceeded those totals in his first three seasons with the Yankees with season totals of 42, 34 and 45 doubles.

Of the other five players on that list, only Kazuo Matsui ever hit as much as 30 home runs in one season in Japan. None of those players had to make the adjustment from power-hitter, to good all-around hitter.

In his two seasons prior to coming to the Devil Rays, Iwamura had home run totals of 44 and 32 (in 2003 Iwamura hit 12 home runs in 60 games, which projects to 30 over the course of a full season). Nobody expected Iwamura to come in and hit 35 home runs for the Rays. In fact, Iwamura predicted 20 home runs. When the season was over, his home run total was 7, a fry cry from his Japan League totals and his own prediction. However, the drop-off in power mimicked that of Matsui in 2003.

We are not expecting Iwamura to rebound and hit 30 home runs in 2008, but it would not surprise us if his power numbers see a significant boost in season two. By the end of the season we expect to see that Iwamura's home run total is on par with his prediction entering last season (20) and we also expect to see a significant bump in doubles (21 in 2007). If that occurs, Iwamura will not only improve his OPS in year two, he will establish himself as one of the top-hitting second basemen in baseball.

Aki to battle recent history [DRays Bay]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Considerable debate was raised over our criticism of Joe Maddon's "goal" of 81 wins. While we ackowledge he wants more than 81 wins, we felt it was poorly worded and it is the wording that the fans and the players will gravitate towards. In Marc Topkin's most recent piece, Stuart Sternberg did a much better job of conveying the team's perception of what is accepted of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. "The goal is to get the organization to a place where we feel coming in we should win 80-something games, and if things break right you win 8-10 more and if things break badly you win 10 less," he said. "We're pretty much there. Being in a position to win 65 with the chance to win 75 is not acceptable." In Sterberg's words, this is an 80-win team with a chance to be a 90-win team if things break right for the Rays. This was our point from the beginning. Papa Joe made it sound like the Rays are a 75-win team and we should all be happy if they won 81 games. Sternberg's and our position is that this incarnation of the Rays should win 80 games, and anything less would be a disappointment. [TampaBay.com]
• Further down in the same piece, Topkin reports that the Rays are in talks with left-handed reliever Trever Miller, but that length of contract remains a sticking point. [TampaBay.com]
  
• MLB Trade Rumors takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in their latest installment of "Needs and Luxuries". With the piece, MLBTR addresses this season's lineup and looks ahead to 2009 and some of the changes the Rays could have in store when they make a serious push for the playoffs. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Baseball America takes a look at the 2008 draft and upon further review...yep...The Devil Rays did suck last year more than any other team (again) and will have the top pick on the draft. Jim Callis speculates that the Rays could take high school shortstop Tim Beckham, over college third baseman Pedro Alvarez. [Baseball America]

The Rays have a lot of quality pitching coming through their pipeline, but teams always want more and they could opt for one of the top college arms, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow or San Diego lefty Brian Matusz. Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they'll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they'll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors

Tampa Bay Rays (29 days until pitchers and catchers report)

The Rays came to an agreement with Dan Wheeler on a one year contract for $2.875 million, avoiding arbitration. The salary will give Wheeler the 5th highest salary on the Rays in 2008, behind only Carl Crawford ($5.25 million), Troy Percival ($4 million) and both Scott Kazmir and Carlos Pena whose salaries have yet to be settled, but will certainly be greater than $2.875 million. In 2007, only four players on the opening day roster had salaries greater than $1 million, including Crawford ($4 million), Casey Fossum ($2.2 million), Ty Wigginton ($1.3 million) and Jae Seo ($1.2 million)*.

Wheeler's deal leaves the Rays with three arbitration-eligible players (Carlos Pena, Scott Kazmir and Jonny Gomes). The remaining arbitration-eligible cases must be resolved by Friday or the player's 2008 salaries will be settled by an arbitrator.

With three salaries yet to be determined, the Tampa Bay Rays opening day payroll (40-man roster) now projects to be just under $41 million.

*Both Pena and Reyes had base salaries less than $1 million but earned incentives during the season that pushed their salary above $1 million.

RHP Dan Wheeler and Rays agree to 1-year contract. [Yahoo! Sports]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Rays of Light breaks down six things that must happen for the Rays to post their first winning season in 2008. The biggest point is the first and one that we believe too many people are ignoring when they speak of the Rays new and improved bullpen. That is: Troy Percival and Al Reyes are both old and have a history of injuries. To expect a full season out of both is expecting a lot. Maybe too much. [Rays of Light]

There’s no doubt that Al Reyes and Troy Percival can throw, but there’s also no doubt that at ages 37 and 38 respectively and each with a history of injury, they are much closer to their last pitch than their first.

• Baseball Prospectus lists Dioner Navarro as one of their 2008 "Breakout Candidates". [Baseball Prospectus]
  

Navarro has been a completely different player since being traded to the Devil Rays in 2006. At the time of the deal, Navarro had a career OBP of .360. With Tampa Bay, his OBP is .292. That kind of drop-off at 22 and 23 is alarming, and deserves investigation. When you look deeper, you see that Navarro’s decline has been concentrated in his strikeout rate, up about 15 percent, with a concomitant drop in his walk rate... Navarro was one of the worst players in baseball in the first half of 2007, batting .177/.238/.254, with a 36/13 K/BB in 229 plate appearances. To the Rays’ credit, they didn’t bury him, allowing him to remain the regular catcher throughout the season. They were rewarded with a significant improvement in the second half: .285/.340/.475, with a better K/BB (31/17 in 209 PA) and the best power of his career...As a switch-hitting catcher with good defensive skills and the ability to post a .360 OBP, however, he’s a tremendous asset. Navarro, still just 24 years old, is in line to be an above-average player, a five-win guy, for the next three seasons.

• Inside Vandy is running a 32-athlete "tournament" to find Vanderbilt's biggest star. Why do we care here at RI? Because not only is there a "David Price Bracket", but Pedro Alvarez is the #1 seed in the David Price Bracket. Alvarez is a power-hitting third baseman that may very well be the Rays selection as the top pick in the draft this June. [Inside Vandy]

Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)


DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• The Rule 5 draft was held yesterday and the Rays selected Tim Lahey from the Minnesota Twins and then traded him to the Cubs. The Rays lost one player, as Evan Meek was taken with the second pick by the Pirates. [Baseball America]
• In the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft, the Rays selected Rashad Eldridge from the Twins. Eldridge was a 5th round pick in 2000 and has had a very unimpressive career to date. The Rays selected two other players in the Rule 5 draft that will never wear a Rays uniform so there names are unimportant. [Baseball America]
• Rays Anatomy takes a look at the players selected by the Rays in the Rule 5 Draft, including the two unnamed players from above. [Rays Anatomy]
  
• Most of us are familiar with the Rule 5 draft (not Rule V), but did you know that baseball's amateur draft held in June is actually the Rule 4 draft? Baseball Prospectus takes a look at the Rule 4 draft and projects the first 10 selections, predicting that the Tampa Bay Rays will take Pedro Alvarez, a 1B/3B from Vanderbilt. The most eye-opening line is the last one, in which BP projects that Alvarez would eventually be the best bat in the Rays lineup. It isn't like the Rays don't have any good bats and Evan Longoria is knocking on the door. [Baseball Prospectus]

Pedro is still the class of this draft, but the top high schoolers closed the gap over the summer. You can bet Alvarez is going to have some huge bonus demands — if he regresses at all as a junior (like Matt Wieters did), Tampa will explore other options. In the end, though, this should be their guy. He could be great at first and probably even work in right, and he’ll be the best bat in their lineup at some point.

• Yahoo! Sports has named the Tampa Bay Rays as one of the winners of the Winter Meetings. Keep in mind that the Matt Garza trade was made prior to the Winter Meetings. [Yahoo! Sports]

The Elijah Dukes Experiment, which went about as well as metal in a microwave, is finally over, and GM Andrew Friedman even managed to procure a decent prospect from Washington in the trade. For too long, the Rays tolerated Dukes' sociopathic behavior because his talent. His Crazy Factor – the formula for which is DTTW+JPD/BA (death threats toward wife plus joints per day divided by batting average) – finally spiked too high even for their liking, though, and somehow they found a willing buyer in the Nationals. This is six months late, yes, but better than never.