Blue Jays 12, Devil Rays 11.
It hurts. real bad. But it would hurt a lot worse if we were surprised. Is there anybody out there that didn't think, with Al Reyes unavailable, that this bullpen was capable of blowing a 5 run lead? Bullpens are supposed to put out fires. That's why closers are referred to as "Firemen". The Devil Rays bullpen starts fires. Some pitchers have lightning bolts for arms. The Devil Rays relievers have arms made of lighter fluid.

And the worst Arsonist of the group? Shawn Camp. Hands down. Of course we could also make an argument for Joe Maddon for once again putting Camp in a situation to hurt the ballclub. Supposedly Papa Joe is a computer guy and a statistics guy and loves to look at trends and matchups. If that is the case we obviously don't need to remind Papa Joe that Camp is THE WORST PITCHER IN BASEBALL WHEN IT COMES TO INHERITED RUNNERS. He has now inherited 40 runners (5 more than anybody else in baseball) and allowed 17 of those runners to score (42.5%). The major league average is about 30%. So not only is Camp horrible in these situations, but for some reason Papa Joe keeps bringing him in with runners on more often than any other pitcher in baseball. We can't make it up.

And when we think about it, the bullpen is lucky that the Rays were only up 5 runs in the 9th. Last night the Arsonists would have blown a 15 run lead. We are still waiting for one of the 4 relief pitchers to record the second out of the 9th.

If there is a silver lining from last night's game it is that this is the sort of performance that could lead to a shake up that is long overdue.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• This latest bullpen melt down came one day after devilrays.com mentioned that the 'pen had been "stepping up" recently. oops.
  

After a rough start to the season, the Rays' bullpen is starting to establish itself as one of the strengths of the team

• Is James Shields deserving of a spot on the All-Star team? At this point you would have to say 'yes'. But BJ Upton and Al Reyes are also deserving and it is hard to imagine the Jim Leyland will take more than one member of the Devil Rays.
• One fan has had enough of the 2007 Devil Rays, and this latest implosion was the final straw. We understand the frustration but we have to say we knew this team had a terrible pitching staff when the season started.
  

Something smells...Let's see if we can figure out what it is...

Yesterday, somebody in the comments section asked about the number of runners inherited that Shawn Camp had allowed to score this year. Of course, we really don't need a statistics to tell us that the answer is somewhere between "too many" and "seriously? Shawn Camp?...again?"

While most media outlets still list wins, losses, saves and ERA, a true measure of a relief pitchers effectiveness is their ability to come in and put out a fire. Strangely, IR (number of inherited runners) IRS (number of inherited runners scored) and IRS% (percentage of inherited runners that scored) are elusive numbers. None of the giant online media outlets list the numbers. But never fear, after some searching, the fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus have come through (as usual).

First let us take a look at the numbers for every pitcher that has pitched in relief this season for the Devil Rays. In all Major League games this season, relief pitchers have faced a total of 1906 IR. Of those runners, 589 have come around to score for a ML average of 30.9%.

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Gary Glover	16	3	18.8
Brian Stokes	15	6	40.0
Ruddy Lugo	10	7	70.0
Juan Salas	9	3	33.3
Al Reyes	4	1	25.0
Tim Corcoran	2	1	50.0
Chad Orvella	2	0	0.0
Jae Kuk Ryu	0	0	0.0

Jae Kuk Ryu is the only pitcher that is yet to enter a game with a runner on base. As we can see from the numbers, Shawn Camp, as well as Brian Stokes and Ruddy Lugo (currently in AAA) have been atrocious. Gary Glover has been surprisingly effective.

Now let's see how the Devil Rays rank as a team against the rest of Major League relief pitchers...

TEAM	IR	IRS	IRS%
Colorado	56	25	44.6%
St. Louis	47	19	40.4
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS	87	34	39.1
New York Yankees	83	32	38.6
Baltimore	81	31	38.3
Kansas City	78	29	37.2

As a team the Devil Rays have allowed 34 of 87 IR (both Major League highs) to score or 39.1%. Sadly, the Rockies, as a team, have been nearly as bad as Shawn Camp, but they have faced 31 fewer IR than the Rays. The Yankees and Orioles actually have similar numbers to the Rays.

There have been 27 pitchers that have inherited at least 15 runners in 2007...

PITCHER	IR	IRS	IRS%
Shawn Camp	29	13	44.8%
Geoff Geary	28	5	17.9
Brian Shouse	25	2	8.0
Aaron Fultz	20	7	35.0
John Parrish	20	6	30.0
Micah Bowie	20	6	30.0
Joseph Smith	19	6	31.6
Mike MacDougal	19	5	26.3
Jack Taschner	19	5	26.3

Shawn Camp has inherited more base runners than any other pitcher, with 29 and has allowed the most to score by a wide margin. His IRS% (44.8%) is the 3rd worst among pitchers with at least 15 IR. If Camp only allowed the league average, he would have only allowed 9 IRS, so Camp has allowed 4 more inherited runners to score than an average pitcher would have if placed in the same situations. Ruddy Lugo is tied for the 7th most IRS with 7 and Brian Stokes is tied for 10th with 6. On a brighter note, Glover has the 5th best IRS% of pitchers with at least 15 IR (18.8%).

Of the 74 pitchers that have faced at least 10 IR, Lugo is the league leader with 70% of those runners scoring.

We're no brain surgeons here, but maybe Camp and Stokes shouldn't be entering close games with runners on base. Just a hunch.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• Andrew Friedman recently spent 5 days in Durham watching each of the Rays 5 AAA starting pitchers. It appears as though we are getting closer to seeing some changes in the Devil Rays rotation. In the meantime our Jae Seo and Casey Fossum voodoo dolls are taking a beating.
  

Each pitcher from the group - left-hander J.P. Howell and right-handers Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot - is working on a few specific areas of interest. Friedman wouldn't handicap who might get the first call to Tampa Bay, but said he could see a couple being ready "very soon" while others have some work to do.

• The Rays have a catching problem. Josh Paul, who was hit by a pitch spiked on a play at home plate on Sunday, needs to head to the DL. The problem is, his replacement, Shawn Riggans is on the DL at AAA Durham and not eligible to come off until Thursday. The Rays do not have any other catchers on the 40-man roster, so if they wanted to replace Paul with somebody else, they would need to designate somebody for assignment. Instead the Rays will keep Paul active as the emergency backup catcher and hope they don't play any 16 inning games in the Mariners series.
• The Mariners come to the Trop for a 3-game set beginning tonight. Seattle is 19-21, 5.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West. They are coming off a loss to Cleveland that was a makeup game from earlier this season. They have lost 5 of 6. The Rays were 3-6 against the Mariners in 2006.

A's 5, Devil Rays 2.
On April 22, the Rays took a 4-2 lead into the 9th inning against the Indians. On that night, Joe Maddon was forced to use Brian Stokes in the 9th inning, with Al Reyes unavailable after having worked the previous two nights. Stokes gave up 3 runs including a 3-run home run to Ryan Garko and the Rays lost the game 6-4. Fast forward 2 weeks and Maddon was once again without Reyes. With the score tied 2-2 in the 9th, Maddon once again turned to Stokes. Stokes once again gave up a 3-run home run. We guess that winning three straight games was just too much to ask for and let's face it, it has been a while since the bullpen imploded at a very inopportune time. Most of the Rays losses recently have been of the 9-1 variety, but last night reminded us just how shallow the Rays bullpen is.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...

• BJ Upton has been moved into the #5 spot in the lineup.
  
• Greg Norton began his 2-week rehab stint at Montgomery last night. He was the Biscuits DH and went 1-3 with a double and 2 RBI.
• Joe Maddon is treating this entire season as extended spring training.
  

Three hours before Friday's game, all 25 Devil Rays and the entire coaching staff were on the Tropicana Field turf for an extensive session of fundamental work. It sounds basic enough, but it's a sight rarely seen once calendars turn past March. Pickoffs and pitchers' fielding practice, cutoffs and relays - they're drills usually confined to the monotonous days before games begin.

• The Rays bullpen is bad. Just plain bad.
  

Jae Seo was awful last night. Yes, the defense was atrocious with 3 errors in the Rays 12-9 loss to the Rangers, their 4th straight. Still, Seo gave up 8 hits, 3 walks, 1 hit batter, 1 wild pitch and 10 runs (5 earned) in 3 innings. The Rangers have now scored more runs in their two games against the Rays (20) than they did in their first six games combined (19). And the "Shake your head" stat of the night...Carl Crawford was caught stealing twice last night by the Rangers Gerald Laird. We think that qualifies as an anomaly.

• Elijah Dukes is now the most-days DH. In the spring we predicted that Jonny Gomes would only receive 300 at bats in 2007. Now it looks like he will struggle to get 200.
  
• Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman aren't ready to shake up the roster, but they will look at different pitchers in more crucial bullpen roles late in games.
• Andrew Friedman made it clear that the team is not happy with the performance of the bullpen and they will continue to talk trades with other teams in search of relief relief.
• Another look at the Rays bullpen struggles, via The Rays Review.
• The Rays could be interested in the Astros' former All-Star closer Brad Lidge. Lidge hasn't been the same pitcher since he surrendered a game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. Whether it is confidence or mechanics or health, we don't know. But in the past year, he hasn't looked much better than Shawn Camp.
  
• Baseball Analysts take an in depth look at Elijah Dukes minor league career and the first 5 games of his major league career. Two aspects stick out. First is that Dukes has actually improved at every level. The second is his patience at the plate, which is very uncharacteristic for such a young player. A point that hopefully will rub off on some of his teammates.
• Jorge Cantu will see time at third base and first base with Durham.Whether he will see time at those positions in Tampa or it is just an audition for other teams is left to be seen.
  
• After last night, the Rays have been outscored 22-9 in the 8th and 9th innings.
• The most wins ever by a pitcher drafted by the Devil Rays is 8. In 2002, Joe Kennedy went 8-11 for the Rays.
  
• Who's got Aki-Fever!?!
  

Let's face it, Shawn Camp and Ruddy Lugo are not major league pitchers right now. In spring training Joe Maddon made it clear that there were no more free lunches. No more "scholarships". This is why we were puzzled when Papa Joe appeared to guarantee Camp and Lugo spots in the bullpen at the beginning of the spring, despite being two members of the worst bullpen in baseball in 2006. Camp said during the spring that he was working on being more consistent. Mission accomplished. He has been consistently bad in 2007. In four appearances, he has recorded only 7 outs, yet he has surrendered 6 hits, a walk, and a hit batter, to go with 4 runs.

Last night Camp relieved Edwin Jackson with 2 outs in the 6th with runners at first and third and the score tied. Two batters later the Rangers were leading 4-2. Papa Joe had seen enough. Now it was Lugo's turn to stop the bleeding. Four batters and zero outs later, the game was 8-2 and out of reach. Lugo has actually been worse than Camp so far in 2007. He has recorded 6 outs, and he has given up 7 hits and 4 walks which have led to 5 runs. That equates to an era of 22.50 and a 5.500 whip. That's not an easy thing to do.

So now we will see if Maddon and Andrew Friedman are true to their word. Are Camp and Lugo on "scholarship"? If not, they need to be in Durham. We have no idea what the problem is, but it is clear that neither is capable of getting major league hitters out at this point. If this continues, it will be damaging to this young team. This team started the season with a lot of confidence. To compete with the monsters of the AL East, this team needs confidence and there is no way they can be confident in the bullpen right now. The idea of Camp or Lugo even warming up in the bullpen during a game in which the lead is less 10 gives us the hibidy-jibidies.

We don't know who should be in their place, but right now a Fungo could get more hitters out. At Durham, Steve Andrade has 7 strike outs in 4.1 innings, but gave up 2 runs in his first appearance. Tim Corcoran and Scott Dohmann both have major league experience and have been solid so far. Chad Orvella has struggled a bit early on, but was strong this spring with the Rays. Hell, we would rather have Seth McCl...ummm, nevermind. We aren't that desperate yet.

Is it any coincidence that these are the two pitchers that were used during the now famous "Cat in the Hat" reading? Durham parents are checking the transaction page daily. Soon they will have to lock their children in the basement.

The good and, well, just the ugly [St. Pete Times]

• Jae Seo came back down to earth a bit allowing 5 runs in the first inning of his final spring tune up. The Rays lost to the Reds 5-4. BJ Upton had 3 hits and 2 stolen bases.
  
• That the Rays decided to send Seth McClung down to Durham doesn't surprise us (25 base runners in 9.1 innings this spring), but Chad Orvella's demotion has us shaking our heads. One day after the team released Dan Miceli based in large part on his performance, why in the world was Orvella sent down? 13 base runners in 10.1 innings is not bad, but 0.87 ERA is pretty darn good. Granted we were not there to see Orvella pitch everyday but the numbers indicate he did just about everything that was asked of him.
• The seven members of the bullpen are now set, but they better not get too comfortable. In reality, there are about 12 members of the bullpen and JetBlue may want to schedule regular flights between Tampa and Durham.
  
• Carlos Pena will decide in the next couple of days whether to accept a demotion to the minors or declare himself a free agent.
• An interview with Joe Maddon. Nothing too revealing except Papa Joe states that he loves competing in the AL East and wouldn't want to be in another division.
  
• HERE is a geographical argument for having the Rays and Nationals switch divisions.
  

• The Rays had another rough loss yesterday, falling to the Tribe 10-2. Joel Guzman hit his first home run of the Spring and Carl Crawford stole two bases. We may have jinxed Jeff Ridgway yesterday by saying that he could grab one of the last bullpen spots because he is left handed. He responded by giving up 3 hits, 4 walks and 5 runs in 1 inning. Not good.
  
• Jon Switzer took a line drive off his wrist from the only batter he faced. X-rays were negative.
  
• Josh Hamilton had his first rough game of the Spring going 0-3 with a walk against the Yankees. The o-fer included only his second strike out.
• The Rays made their first two "cuts" of the Spring by reassigning Doug Waechter and Shinji Mori to minor league camp. Both players are returning from surgery and will not be ready to pitch during the first part of the season.
• Rays fans will get a look at two future members of the Rays rotation this afternoon when Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot take the mound against the Pirates.
  
• Papa Joe Maddon's new lineup with Rocco Baldelli-Delmon Young-Carl Crawford as the 1-2-3 hitters may already be old news as Maddon is now leaning towards swapping C. C. and Delmon permanently. The move makes sense. We have always thought that Crawford was a natural 3-hitter despite his speed. In this case, C. C. and Delmon are very similar hitters, but Crawford has a little more speed and Young has a little more power. The move also creates righty-lefty-righty situation with Baldelli at the top.
• Joel Guzman is excited to be back in the infield, having dropped 20 pounds in the off-season to increase his range and mobility at third base.
• Carl Crawford says that his wrists are fine but he is still treating them everyday for tendinitis. Let's hope it is only precautionary.
  
• Yesterday we introduced many of you to Manny Stiles. His first rant on the Rays is up here. Enjoy. He says this isn't just a shtick. He promises that he is a full-fledged Rays fan now. It's a hard life Manny.
  

• Another solid performance by one of the Rays starting pitchers. James Shields allowed only one base runner in two innings of work with two strikeouts. At the plate, Joe Maddon tried a new lineup with Carl Crawford and Delmon Young switching spots in the order. The move paid off in the first with Crawford stealing second and Delmon driving him home.
• Yesterday we speculated that one of the final two spots in the bullpen would go to Al Reyes and the final spot was up for grabs. Papa Joe Maddon indicated that there was a very good chance that Reyes would make the team and Juan Salas was the leading candidate for the final spot. One guy we might be forgetting about is Jeff Ridgway. Maddon went the first half of 2006 without a lefty in the bullpen. He has always said having a lefty is not a priority. Rather, he just needs a guy that can get lefties out. Still, if Maddon does decide to include a lefty in the pen (like the other 29 managers in baseball) Ridgway might be the guy.
  
• In a classic non-story-story, the Lakeland Ledger says that the Rays should not be tempted to rush Jeff Niemann to the majors. The Rays have one spot open in the rotation (two if Casey Fossum can't go the first week or two) and five pitchers competing for that spot. Niemann is not one of those pitchers. The team has been emphatic that Big Righthander would start the season at AAA. Trust us, they are not tempted.
• Last season there was one of those classic New York sports stories (by typical we mean silly) that made a controversy over the use of the song Enter Sandman by the Mets new closer Billy Wagner. You see the song had been used by the Yankees Mo Rivera for years and for a lesser human being like Wagner to use it was heretical. Well, even though he is a starter, J. P. Howell's favorite musician could trump them all. Who wouldn't get fired up when Howell came jogging in from the bullpen with PA announcer blaring...Mozart?
• The Hardball Times ranks the top 3 benches in the American League. The Rays did not make the cut, but they did receive honorable mention. Now if the team could just get some pitching depth.
  
• Baseball Analysts takes a look at how often Rule 5 picks stuck with their new teams for an entire season from 1998-2006. Interestingly, outfield selections have the highest failure rate. Of the 23 outfielders chosen from 1998-2006, only five were with the team that selected them for the entire season. One of those to not stick with their new team was Rays farmhand Jason Pridie. Will Josh Hamilton become just the sixth? We thinks yes.
  
• Could the Rays be Major League baseball's version of George Mason this season? Only if the league decides to allow 65 teams into the playoffs, and even then they better hope that the selection committee considers the Rays strength of schedule.
  

• Stop us if you have heard this before: The Rays bullpen blew a...Yeah...we thought you might have heard it before. Yeah, yeah, its the first Spring game, but when a guy who is supposed to be one of the only bright spots in the pen gives up a three-run home run to a guy wearing #93, thats not so good. On top of that between the intrasquad game and this game against the Yankees, it took the regulars 10 innings before they picked up their first base hit, a single by Rocco Baldelli to lead off the fourth. Back...is...starting...to...tense up.
• These new Spring Training uniforms are hideous.
  
• Al Reyes will take a major step today towards coming back from surgery.
  
• We have long held the belief here that the team would not be active in this year's free agency but rather they would hold off, allow the young roster one more season of maturation and then become much more active in the market following the 2007 season. This year's over-priced and under-talented free agent class made sticking to the plan much easier for the front office. Many have stated that the 2008 free agent class is much deeper which should bring the prices down a touch. Here is an early look at that class.
• Benny Boo Zobrist is starting to remind us more and more of "Jimmy" from Bull Durham. Jimmy was the very religious guy on the Durham Bulls that would never say a bad word, everybody made fun of him and then he married the hot chick.
  

The Rays return in 2007 with basically the same lineup that finished the 2006 campaign. That is not necessarily a good thing for a team that lost 101 games, scored the fewest runs and gave up the fourth most runs in the major leagues. What it does offer is a sense of stability and an opportunity for the young players to grow and show that another year of experience and maturity will help them take a step forward. Still, with most of the regular lineup set, there a number of questions concerning the Rays entering Spring Training.

1. Who will be the regular first baseman? First base is the one position that remains without an obvious starter. There are several candidates to fill the very small shoes of the departed Travis Lee who had the worst OPS (.676) of any major league first baseman with at least 300 plate appearances in 2006. The obvious choice is Ty Wigginton who had a breakout season in '06 with 24 home runs and numerous clutch hits, despite missing 40 games. However, Joe Maddon loves players with positional flexibility and Wiggy is the most flexible on the roster which means he will see plenty of playing time at other positions. Even if he is the regular first baseman, others will also receive playing time there, including Jorge Cantu, Jonny Gomes and Elijah Dukes, none of whom have ever played the position regularly in the past. Still, if Cantu or Dukes step up in Spring Training and show that they can handle the position, they could become the "starter" and Wiggy would be back to his role as super-utility man.
2. Will the Rays buck Major League tradition and keep top prospects on 25-man roster without a regular position? Both B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes enter Spring Training without a regular position. Upton finished '06 as the starting third baseman but his glove work was no better than his stint at shortstop. Newly acquired Akinori Iwamura, will likely start the season at third base leaving Upton without a home. Every indication so far is that Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman will keep Upton on the roster getting him regular at bats at a number of different positions including third base, shortstop, second base and center field. The hope is that Upton will be able to concentrate on his offense while allowing his defense to develop naturally. Dukes is the bigger question mark. It appears that the team would like Dukes to be the fourth outfielder. His ability to play center field and considering the health history of Rocco Baldelli, there may be plenty of at bats there, but he would also see playing time at first base and DH. Friedman has stated that Dukes has little left to prove at the minor league level, which may be true, but the team may also quietly believe that Dukes may be better suited for the more structured atmosphere of a major league clubhouse as well as the close watchful eye of Maddon and the coaches.
3. Who will fill out the starting rotation? The only other regular position that is up for grabs is the fifth spot in the rotation and possibly the fourth. Scott Kazmir is healthy and will resume his spot at the top. His shoulder stiffness in the second half of 2006 may have been a blessing in disguise. Without the injury, Kid K was on pace for 200+ innings which often leads to a fall-off the following season for a young pitcher. The other locks for the rotation appear to be Jae Seo and James Shields. If Casey Fossum is healthy he will be in the rotation and all signs are that he will be. That leaves one spot with a number of candidates, including J.P. Howell, Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, Jae Kuk Ryu and Edwin Jackson. Our money is on Howell. He seemed to rediscover his fastball late in 2006 and has the biggest upside of the group. The hot candidate at this point is Jackson. Jackson is out of options and will be on the roster. Once a top starting pitcher prospect, Jackson struggled mightily in '06. However, he is still young (23) and he pitched well in winter ball indicating that his days as a starter may not be over. Still, his biggest problem in '06 was his control and despite strong overall numbers this winter, he still issued too many walks.
4. What can be expected from Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes? Both Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes played most of 2006 at less than 100% and the drop-off from their 2005 numbers was dramatic. Cantu enters '07 healthy and as the starting second baseman but may see time at first base and DH. Gomes will be the regular DH, but unless he can prove he can handle occasional starts at first base, he is likely to lose at bats to other players at DH. Look for both players to rebound in '07, with Cantu the most likely to approach his '05 totals. Gomes struggles in '06 appeared to be due just as much to holes in his swing as to his injured shoulder. Cantu should receive 500+ at bats, but Gomes will more likely only see ~300, especially if Elijah Dukes is on the major league roster. We would be happy if Cantu hits .280-25-90, but don't expect much more than .240-18-60 from Gomes.
   
5. Will the Rays trade for more bullpen help? Of all the areas that the Rays could have used an upgrade, the most glaring weakness on the team is the bullpen. Last week the Rays picked up Jae Kuk Ryu for nothing more than a couple of low level prospects. While Ryu will contend for the 5th spot in the rotation, he is more likely destined for the bullpen. The team also signed Scott Dohmann. These moves are the equivalent of spitting on a forest fire. There is some talent in the bullpen, but unless everybody steps up the team will struggle once again late in games. Of course, they could get a big boost if the starting pitchers, who worked the fewest number of innings for any team in baseball, can work deeper into games in '07. Still, Seth McClung allows too many base runners to be an effective closer and unless the team acquires more help, the Rays will continue to blow games late and will be unable to make a big jump forward in 2007.
   
6. Is Dioner Navarro ready to step up offensively? Dioner Navarro is the most likely Ray to have an offensive breakout in 2007. We don't mean to suggest that Navarro is ready to put up Pudge Rodriguez numbers but what about Paul LoDuca numbers with a little more power? Navarro is only 23 and already has parts of two seasons under his belt. In addition he has an excellent contact rate and strikeout to walk ratio for his career (72:51). Those type of numbers from a young player are often good indicators of future success. His 2006 numbers projected over an entire season were only .254-12-56. For the first time in his career he enters the season as the clear cut #1 catcher. With his experience and without the pressure, look for Navarro to boost his numbers into the .290-20-80 range.
   
7. How will Akinori Iwamura's game translate to the Major Leagues? The only major off-season acquisition came to the Rays via the Japanese posting system. Akinori Iwamura's signing actually raised more questions than it answered. What position will he play? Where will B. J. Upton find playing time? There appears to be little doubt that Muu-Rah is a major league talent. All indications are that he will be a gold glove caliber third baseman, but his bat may not produce enough runs for the hot corner. He showed signs of power in Japan, but is more likely to be a gap hitter in the U.S. which means second base may be his future home. While we have a general idea what the rest of the lineup is capable of, Muu-Rah is the biggest offensive question mark entering Spring Training.
8. Will 2007 be Rocco Baldelli's breakout season? 2007 will mark the first healthy Spring Training for Rocco Baldelli since 2004. It seems like he has been a member of the Rays for a decade so it is difficult to remember that he is still only 25 years old. After struggling to find his stroke after missing the first two months of '06, Rocco hit .323 with 11 home runs in August and September. And while he will never be the base stealing threat many had hoped, he did still 7 bases in the final two months. If Baldelli can stay healthy (a big IF), this could very well be the season that he jumps up and establishes himself as one of the best outfielders in baseball. .300-25-110 with 20 stolen bases is not an absurd expectation.
9. How good can Carl Crawford be? Carl Crawford has four full seasons on his resume and in each of those seasons he has improved his batting average, home runs and RBI with at least 46 stolen bases. The only aspect that may be lacking from his game is power. He did hit 18 home runs in 2006, but many don't ever expect a player with C.C.'s speed to be a power hitter. And while he is one of the fastest men in baseball, most people that don't follow the Rays closely don't realize how big Carl is. At 6'2" and 220 pounds he has the size to hit for power. And despite playing most of '06 with a sore wrist, in one stretch he did hit 11 home runs in 30 games. Crawford will likely be the Rays' #3 hitter in '07 which means more opportunities to drive in runs and fewer opportunities to steal bases. Crawford's numbers in '07 are more likely to look like .315-25-110 with closer to 40 stolen bases. Despite being snubbed last year, he is not likely to be overlooked for the mid-summer classic this season.
10. How good can Delmon Young be? We worried about Young's transition to the major league level because he is a free-swinger and rarely draws walks. In the minors he had a 284 to 97 strikeout to walk ratio and those numbers were worse with the Rays (24:1). Still, for such a free-swinger, we saw an amazingly patient hitter. Pitchers regularly pitched him away and time after time he rocketed line drives to right field. Still, that translated to only three home runs in 126 at bats despite hitting .316. He also only had 14 home runs in 570 AAA at bats. For all the talk of this can't-miss prospect and his impressive debut in '06, many have noted the lack of home runs at the AAA and major league levels. Rest assured, the power will develop. Those that saw Delmon regularly at Durham noted that as a line drive hitter, he would have hit many more home runs if the Durham ballpark did not have such a high wall in left field. We have never seen such a patient and intelligent hitter at such a young age. Look for Young to start the '07 season much like '06, taking what pitchers give him. The home runs will come as he becomes more comfortable.
    
11. When will Jeff Niemann make his major league debut? The Rays are desperate for a #2 starter to compliment Scott Kazmir and once again it looks like Jeff Niemann may be that pitcher. After missing the fist half of 2006 following minor shoulder surgery, Niemann returned and dominated at the AA-level. Nobody doubts that Niemann has major league caliber stuff but at this point the team wants to make sure he has rediscovered his mechanics, especially the touch on his breaking balls. If Niemann dominates in Spring Training, it will be tempting to give him the 5th spot in the rotation, but the team will be patient and send him to Durham for 10-12 starts with a mid-season promotion in mind. Look for Niemann to be throwing from the Tropicana mound by July.