Yesterday we linked to a story by Joe Posnanski in which he rated managers on their decisions to intentionally walk batters and how often it comes back to bite the manager in the butt (If you missed it, the short version is Posnanski finally found something Papa Joe sucks at).

Within that piece, Posnanski generates a new statistic to evaluate closers based on a classification system generated in the upcoming "Bill James Handbook". In the handbook, James breaks down save opportunities into three categories:

1. Easy Save. This is a save when the first batter faced is not the tying or go-ahead run.
2. Tough save: This is a save when the tying or go ahead run is already on base when you take over.
3. Regular save: Everything else. [Typically, a "regular" save is when a pitcher starts the 9th inning with a 1-run lead.]

Based on how often relief pitchers and closers (min. 10 save opportunities) convert each of the three save types, Posnanski developed a back-of-the-napkin statisitic (CLOSER+) as a way to compare relief pitchers, while weighing the types of saves each pitcher faces. For example, if 2 pitchers each have 20 save chances but one pitcher faces 20 "Tough" saves chances, while the other pitcher only faces 20 "Easy" chances, the first pitcher would be expected to have less total saves at the end of the season.

Posnanski looked at how the best and worst closers fared in 2008 (he does not provide the complete list). Mariano Rivera topped the list with a CLOSER+ of 145 (100 is average for relief pitchers, while the average closer is about 115*). Part of the reason for Rivera's exceptional rating is because he was five-for-five in "Tough" saves.

Posnanski gives us the top 10 closers and the worst closer (JJ Putz). Troy Percival's rating was not provided. So we applied the save conversion rates to see how many saves an average relief pitcher and an average closer would have been expected to convert had they been given all of Percival's save opportunities. Then we calculated Percy's CLOSER+ to see how he compared to other relief pitchers and other closers.

Percival converted 28 of 32 saves on the season. 21 of those save chances fell into the "Easy" category, while the other 11 were deemed "regular". Percival did not face any "Tough" save opportunities this season.

Based on the league average conversion rates, a typical relief pitcher would have converted 24.5 saves, while an average closer would have converted 27.3 saves. Percival's 28 saves translates to a 114 CLOSER+ when compared to relief pitchers and a 103 CLOSER+ when only compared to closers with at least 10 save opportunities. In other words, Percy was 14% better than a typical relief pitcher when it comes to save opportunities, and 3% better than the average closer.

This is not without problems. This only includes games in which Percival either converted or blew a save. There were a couple of outings in which Percival was brought in for a save and left after being knocked around a bit but did not blow the lead. Those games are not considered here. This rating also does not take into account Percival's three trips to the DL and the negative impact those trips left on the bullpen and pitching staff.

Still, for all intents and purposes, Percival was at worst, an average closer in 2008.

For fun, we decided to also look at Dan Wheeler and Grant Balfour. Take Balfour's numbers with a grain of salt as his numbers represent a very small sample size.

No surprise here. Wheeler was downright awful as a closer blowing 2 "Easy" saves and 3 "Regular" saves. Wheeler was 11% worse than an average closer (CLOSER+ 89) even though he converted both of his tough save situations. Wheeler's most memorable "Tough" save was when he was called on with 2 outs in the 9th after Joe Maddon intentionally walked Josh Hamilton with the bases loaded, putting the tying run on first base. Wheeler struck out Marlon Byrd to end the game.

Balfour on the other hand had very strong CLOSER+ ratings. This is attributable to his 3 for 4 showing in "Tough" save situations. But again, this is a very small sample size. Still, we are curious to see the entire list as Balfour's 3 "Tough" saves and 75% conversion rate in those situations are probably near the top of both lists. As Posnanski points out, "Tough" saves are very rare. Most managers prefer to start the 9th inning with their closer and rarely let their closers work more than an inning. Therefore, it is very rare for a closer to enter a game with runners on base.

While determining the closer for 2009 seems to be a priority for the Rays, it should be noted that Percival is still a viable option if he does not retire and stays healthy. Of course, staying healthy might be a little easier if he lays off the jelly doughnuts.

*To clarify. The conversion rates for closers, are from the "Bill James Handbook" and represent pitchers with at least 10 save opportunities. However, when Posnanski ranks the closers, he only uses pitchers with at least 20 save opportunities. The average CLOSER+ rating for Posnanski's list is about 115. That number is a little lower if pitchers with at least 10 save opportunities are considered. That is why Percival has a 114 when compared to all relief pitchers but is actually above average (103) when compared to closers. Percival is being compared to closers with at least 10 save opportunities.

AL EAST	W	L	GB	L10	STK	E#
Boston Red Sox	20	10	-	7-3	W1	--
New York Yankees	14	16	6.0	6-4	L1	127
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	14	17	6.5	5-5	L1	126
Baltimore Orioles	14	18	7.0	3-7	L2	125
Toronto Blue Jays	13	18	7.5	2-8	L6	125

Mariners 3, Yankees 2. Instead of spending $28 million on a 45-year old starting pitcher, maybe the Yankees should find a new set up pitcher. Kyle Farnsworth, the man with a very fast, and very straight fastball has given up a run in 5 appearances this season. The latest was the tying run in the 8th with New York up 2-1. Mo Rivera than gave up a solo shot to Adrian Beltre in the 9th for the loss.

Indians 10, Orioles 1. The O's are in prime form as they get ready to host the Devil Rays at Camden Yards on Tuesday. Steve Trachsel gave up only 1 run in 6 innings, and was pulled before the 7th inning. 4 relievers combined to give up 9 runs over the next three innings, in a very Tampa Bayian performance. Of course the difference is the Rays bullpen cost about $26 while the Orioles spent about $50 million on theirs.

NOTE FROM AROUND THE AL EAST...

• The Yankees spent $46 million on Kei Igawa, and now he is the richest guy in single-A, as he was optioned to Tampa. This is the beauty of the Yankees. And by "beauty" we mean shitty. It is not that they can afford to pay Roger Clemens over $8,000 per pitch. No, the problem with baseball is that the Yankees can send a $46 million pitcher to the minors. How many other teams can afford to swallow high-priced mistakes.
• Of course the biggest question we have is, "Who were the Yankees bidding against?" The Astros are going nowhere and the Red Sox didn't need him.
• This is why Yankees fans are crazy. They and their reporters suggest idiotic things LIKE THIS. Sure, let's make Roger Clemens a reliever because Mo Rivera may be struggling. He hasn't done it since college and I'm sure that is why the Yankees are paying him $28 million. Great idea. *banging head on desk*
  
• Joe Torre was suspended for last night's game and Scott Proctor was suspended for 4 games following an incident in Sundays game with Seattle in which Proctor threw at a batter. Proctor is appealing his suspension.
  

AL EAST	W	L	GB	L10	STK	E#
Boston Red Sox	12	7	-	7-3	L2	--
Baltimore Orioles	11	9	1.5	7-3	L2	142
Toronto Blue Jays	10	10	2.5	4-6	W2	141
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	9	11	3.5	5-5	W2	140
New York Yankees	8	11	4.0	4-6	L5	140

Blue Jays 10, Red Sox 3. The Blue Jays are a lot like the Devil Rays these days and we are not just talking about their aversion to the first part of their nickname and a distancing from their team colors. With all their injuries, especially to BJ Ryan, the Jays only hope is to outscore their opponents, and they have the offense to do it. Roy Halladay struck out 10 in 8 innings and the Jays knocked around 15 hits. Mike Lowell homered for Boston, his third in 3 games.

A's 4, O's 2. All four runs by the A's were scored after the Orioles played hot potato with the baseball. Aubrey Huff hit a triple. Who was playing in the outfield? Stevie Wonder?

NOTES FROM AROUND THE AL EAST...

• Better them than us. The NEW YORK YANKEES ARE IN LAST PLACE.
  
• Apparently the Rays aren't the only team with bullpen issues. The Yankees bullpen is in disarray. We have to agree if Joe Torre is already using the Great Mariano in the 8th inning, bringing Andy Pettite out of the bullpen and his main setup man is Kyle Farnsworth, who has the weakest 98 mph fastball in baseball. Oh yeah, and your submarining lefty gives up grand slams to left-handed hitters.
  
• Derek Jeter was removed from last night's loss to the Rays with a bruised thigh after being hit by a pitch. He is not expected to miss much time.
  
• Alex Rodriguez says he wants to stay in New York after this season. We would expect him to say nothing else.
• BJ Ryan is not coming back anytime soon. The Jays moved him to the 60-day DL. Sounds an awful lot like his season is in jeopardy.
  
• The Orioles lost reliever Scott Williamson to the DL.
• Yet another injury for the Blue Jays. This time it is Greg Zaun headed to the DL. At this rate, Jesse Barfield, Lloyd Moseby and Garth Iorg will be suiting up for the Jays.
  

AL EAST	W	L	GB	L10	STK	E#
Boston Red Sox	10	5	-	8-2	W3	--
Baltimore Orioles	9	7	1.5	7-3	W2	146
New York Yankees	8	7	2.0	6-4	L1	146
Toronto Blue Jays	8	8	2.5	4-6	L3	145
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	6	10	4.5	4-6	L2	143

Red Sox 7, Yankees 6. This was as bad a loss for the Yankees as one can imagine this early in the season. With Andy Pettite on the mound and two rookies to follow in the next two games, this was the Yankees best chance for a win and they let it slip away. With the Red Sox wearing their Christmas uniforms in honor of the Celtic's Red Auerbach, scored 5 in the 8th to overcome a 6-2 deficit. Two of the runs came off of Mo Rivera who has now blown two consecutive saves for only the seventh time in his career. But the worst part for the Yankees had to have been the performance by Alex Rodriguez. A lot of Yankees fans today will tell you that this game summed up A-Rod's stint as a Yankee perfectly. With two home runs early off of Curt Schilling, Rodriguez lined out softly to the second baseman in the 9th inning when it "really mattered". Also questionable was Joe Torre's decision to go with Jose Vizcaino in the 8th with a 4-run lead rather than his usual set-up man Kyle Farnsworth.

Orioles 5, Blue Jays 4. Don't the O's know they are not supposed to be winning? Baltimore overcame a 4-2 deficit with 2 runs in the 8th and 1 in the 9th, on a walk-off single by Nick Markakis, his third hit of the game. The O's are now 2 games over .500 for the first time in 87 years, while the Jays are in full survival mode while BJ Ryan is on the DL. Baltimore has now won 6 of 7.


NOTE FROM AROUND THE AL EAST...

• The Red Sox Times breaks down Curt Schilling's blog entry following his first start against the Yankees last night.
• Apparently Jonny Damon has a hamstring.
  
• Joe Torre promised not to use Mo Rivera in the 8th inning this season. Well, that lasted a whole 3 weeks. So, is this the end of the Great Mariano?
  
• Mariano Rivera may well be the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball and has sustained his greatness over 10 years, a t time when relief pitchers rarely have more than one or two dominant seasons.
  
• BJ Ryan, on the DL with elbow pain, will miss 4-6 weeks.
  
• Hideki Matsui went 1-3 in his first single-A rehab start with the Tampa Yankees.
• This just in...Red Sox fans are not so classy.
• Jay Payton was activated for the first time this season for Baltimore.
  

AL EAST	W	L	GB	L10	STK	E#
Toronto Blue Jays	5	3	-	5-3	W1	--
Boston Red Sox	4	4	1.0	4-4	L1	154
New York Yankees	4	4	1.0	4-4	L1	154
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	3	5	2.0	3-5	W1	153
Baltimore Orioles	3	6	2.5	3-6	L1	152

Mariners 3, Red Sox 0. Felix Hernandez says "where's my $100 million?" All the talk last night was on Daisuke Matsuzaka's Fenway debut and his matchup with Ichiro. However King Felix had other ideas as he took a no-hitter into the eighth and pitched a complete game 1-hitter, screaming "sashimi!" after each of his 6 strikeouts. We might have made that last part up. Dice-K gave up 8 hits and 3 runs as the Mariners looked decidedly less Royals-ish.

Tigers 4, Orioles 1. You can always tell major leaguers don't get paid overtime. Once two teams hit the 9th inning of a tied game, everybody starts swinging for the fence. After all, how many opportunities will the Tigers players have to hit the nightlife in Baltimore? The O's and the Tiggers were scoreless through 11 last night before Craig Monroe hit a 2 out grand slam.

Blue Jays 7, Royals 4. In danger of losing a 3-game set to Kansas City at home. Gustavo Chacin and his cologne pitched just well enough to hold off those scrappy Royals. Scrappy is code in sports for "not very good". Troy Glaus hit a home run.

Twins 5, Yankees 1. There is a reason why Kyle Farnsworth never became the great closer that many had predicted. Sure he throws hard, but he throws straight. A 95-mph fastball isn't a great weapon in the major leagues if it doesn't move and you don't have an off-speed pitch to compliment it. Last night, the twins scored 4 runs in the 8th of of Farnsworth, to break a 1-1 tie.

NOTES FROM AROUND THE AL EAST...

• Mike Mussina became the latest Yankees pitcher to be injured. He injured his left hamstring in the third inning and had to leave the game versus the Twins.
• Jose Guillen invited Red Sox reliever Brendan Donnelly to throw down after the game. Jose Guillen has never been the most mature of major leaguers.
  
• Four Yankees will wear #42 on Monday including Mo Rivera who wears the number normally.
  
• Jay Payton was signed as a free agent this off-season by the Orioles. He is yet to play with Baltimore, having started the year on the DL. Now his return has been delayed at least another week.
• The Orioles have a pretty decent prospect, in Hayden Penn, if Jaret Wright must go on DL.
  
• The Red Sox made several roster moves yesterday.
• Fans in Toronto had other things on their mind last night (playoff hockey, snow) and the crowd showed.
  

AL EAST	W	L	GB	L10	STK	E#
Toronto Blue Jays	3	2	-	3-2	W2	--
Boston Red Sox	3	3	0.5	3-3	W1	157
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	2	3	1.0	2-3	L2	157
New York Yankees	2	3	1.0	2-3	L1	157
Baltimore Orioles	2	4	1.5	2-4	W1	156

Orioles 6, Yankees 4. The Boss is getting ready to make some heads roll. After splitting a season-opening series against the Devil Rays, the Yankees turned around and lost 2 of 3 to the O's. All at Yankee Stadium. Alex Rodriguez hit his third home run in 2 games and fourth of the year to give the Yanks a lead in the first inning. However, in the eighth, with Bobby Abreu on first, down by two, A-Rod was only able to draw a walk. Yankees fan can now resume their natural hatred of the best hitter in baseball.

Red Sox 3, Rangers 2.Big Papi supplied all the offense with a solo home run and a 2-run shot. Curt Schilling rebounded rfom his poor opening day start to go seven strong innings and pick up the win. As far as we know, JD Drew still had all his limbs intact after the game, although Red Sox fans shouldn't feel safe until he is tucked in bed tonight.

NOTES FROM AROUND THE AL EAST...

• The Yankees Hideki Matsui was placed on the DL with a strained hamstring. That is the second outfielder for the Yankees to miss action already this season. GM Brian Cashman has stated that they will not invite Bernie Williams to play this season, but we could see George Steinbrenner smacking Cashman around a little bit and telling him to go find Bernie.
• Buster Olney points out that in Kei Igawa's major league debut, he threw 26 pitches that were not fastballs. Of the 26, there was only 1 called strike and nobody swung and missed. So far Yankees starting pitchers have pitched 21.2 innings in 5 games and given up 36 hits and a 9.97 era. That's DevilRays-esque.
• While the Yankees starters are struggling in the cold weather, the answer to those problems could lie in the arm of AAA right hander Phillip Hughes, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Yes, the Yankees do occasionally develop their own talent, and sometimes they even decide not to trade them.
• Joe Torre is not worried about the pitching. But you can tell he is starting to stir a bit.
  
• We don't need no stinkin' graph to tell us that Mo Rivera is the Yankees most valuable player.
• The Red Sox offense is struggling. Before Sunday's 2-home run performance, the Red Sox had one home run as a team.
  
• The Orioles placed catcher Ramon Hernandez on the DL, with a strained oblique.
  
• Camden Yards got a little bit of an off-season make-over.
• Leo Mazzone is trying to rediscover his Atlanta Braves' magic. Maybe trading for Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine will help.